Proponent, route and Pathways all still unclear ahead of Alberta's pipeline announcement

The Alberta regime is preparing for a john major promulgation this hebdomad nigh a proposed oil pipeline to Canada's West Coast, and experts are waiting to hear more details that could signal how likely the project is to be completed.

Premier Danielle Smith’s office said the province will share new details on Thursday about its submission to the major projects office for a new West Coast pipeline. The announcement will come one day after a July 1 deadline that the Alberta and federal governments set in a memorandum of understanding last month.

Ahead of Thursday, several key details about the project remain unclear, said Enverus head of macro oil and gas research Al Salazar.

“Who pays for the pipe; do they have any guaranteed shippers; is there solid interest from oil sand producers that are backing this; who operates it; and, certainly, the route are all of interest,” said Salazar.

Carney waiting for Alberta's pipeline proposal

Salazar said the more concrete details the province can provide on Thursday, the more it can assure oil producers of the pipeline's viability.

After Alberta's proposal is submitted to the major projects office, Ottawa will have until Oct. 1 to designate it a project of national interest.

Prime Minister Mark Carney said he’ll be in Alberta on Wednesday night, adding that the province's proposal is tracking well.

The province has considered three pipeline routes through northern British Columbia, as well as a southern route to a Vancouver-area port.

It's still unclear whether Alberta will specify this week which route it intends the pipeline to take, but a southern track following the existing Trans Mountain pipeline would be ideal, argued Richard Masson, the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission's former CEO.

Alberta says pipeline proposal on track for July 1 deadline, as uncertainty hangs over project

The B.C. Government and some First Nations have opposed a northern route, because of an existing oil tanker ban on the northern B.C. Coast. So if Alberta announced a route to the Vancouver area on Thursday, Masson said it would be an encouraging sign of harmony.

“That would show me that after some consultation, Alberta’s heard the concerns and has adjusted its plan to try and still get the same outcome, but to get it in a way that people are working towards a common goal,” said Masson.

Taking a northern route to Prince Rupert instead would not have a high probability of success, Masson said.

The federal-provincial agreement calls for the pipeline to be privately constructed and financed, but thus far no private proponent for the project has come forward.

Heather Exner-Pirot, director of natural resources, energy and environment at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, said she doesn't expect a private company to step in until the pipeline has been designated a project of national interest, which can fast-track environmental reviews and federal permitting.

Until then, the cost of a new pipeline is likely too much for companies to bear, she said.

“Before Alberta spends Albertans' money, before a private proponent comes on board, you want to know that politically this is not going to be rejected at the 11th hour,” said Exner-Pirot.

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But Masson argued the lack of a private proponent on the project is a “huge red flag.” He said outside talent is needed to help plan a pipeline's construction.

“Just because Alberta wants a pipeline company, doesn’t mean they’re going to divert their resources from things they’ve already told their shareholders and other customers about to work on this," he said.

Masson said pipeline companies like Trans Mountain, Enbridge and South Bow all have other lower-risk and less costly opportunities to expand pipeline capacity that they are considering.

Carney reiterated on Tuesday that Ottawa’s support for a West Coast pipeline is linked to building the Pathways carbon capture and storage project, to offset some of the emissions from increased oil production.

Pathways is a project long proposed by the Oil Sands Alliance (formerly the Pathways Alliance), which is made up of five major oil sands companies. The companies proposing it, and the provincial and federal governments, have yet to decide how to share the costs and risks.

Masson said he expects Thursday's announcement to come with an update on Pathways as well.

“What the federal government has clearly said is without Pathways there is no support for a pipeline to the West Coast,” said Masson.

How the Pathways carbon storage project would work, if built

Carney says Trudeau-era climate plan was 'too expensive' and 'divisive'

A video posted to Carney's YouTube channel on Tuesday discussed an energy crisis the country faces, and noted the federal government is developing options for an oil pipeline to the West Coast.

Exner-Pirot said she believes the video is an indication Ottawa is in favour of moving the project forward and delivering on a pipeline, will designate it a nation-building project, and assist with financing in some form.

"Carney spoke in his video about his desire to have a united, strong country, to do things that bring us together," said Exner-Pirot.

"This, for me, is all setting the stage for something that both Alberta and B.C. And Ottawa are all going to get behind on Thursday."

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