Keeping up with UP: Congress and the quest for Dalit votes ahead of 2027 polls

ON June 25, the ruling Bharatiya Janata company (BJP) rejigged its organisation in poll-bound Uttar Pradesh, seeking to walk out a caste equilibrise among non-Yadav backwards groups, upper castes, including Brahmins, Rajputs, Banias, and Dalits. In time the Brahmins remain disgruntled with the BJP over issues such as the amendments to University Grants Commission equity regulations, which have since been stayed.The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has reminded Brahmins of its 2007 promise of proportionate representation in power months before the assembly elections are due in 2027. It has sought to make the most of the possibility of Brahmins exploring other options, although the BJP has remained their first choice.The Samajwadi Party (SP), the BJP’s primary challenger, is banking on its PDA formula or a social coalition of Pichda (backward communities), Dalits, and Alpasankhyak (minorities). The Brahmins could eventually turn to the Congress, whose performance in the 2024 national polls, in alliance with the SP, raised hopes of recovering from a terminal decline.The Congress-SP alliance outperformed the BJP in the 2024 polls. It won 43 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh and polled 43.52% of the votes. The Congress bagged six of the 17 seats it contested and secured 9.46% of the votes. The BJP’s seats fell from 62 in 2019 to 33, dropping its overall tally below the majority mark in Parliament for the first time since 2014.In the run-up to the 2024 polls, Congress’s Uttar Pradesh in-charge, Avinash Pandey, engaged with the Brahmins and religious leaders during a statewide cadre-building programme. Congress leaders attribute the party’s improved visibility to the programme, followed by the appointment of booth-level workers and office bearers.The Congress has replaced Pandey, a Brahmin, with a new entrant, Rajendra Pal Gautam, a Dalit from the Jatav sub-caste. The move is seen as part of an attempt to win over Dalits after their support in the 2024 general elections. The support was largely fuelled by fears and the narrative built around the threats to the Constitution, which had Dalit icon Bhimrao Ambedkar as its drafting committee head.Since 2024, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, the BJP’s ideological fount, and its network of organisations have been actively working among Dalits to regain their confidence. A Dalit activist noted the BJP recognises that Jatavs, who account for 10% of the voters, will have the veto in 2027.The BJP hopes to either secure Jatav votes or divert them towards the BSP and Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram). Against this backdrop, there are reasons to be sceptical about Gautam’s ability to retain Dalit support for the SP-Congress alliance. BSP leader Mayawati remains the first choice for Jatavs and dwarfs Gautam in political stature. This is among the reasons why the Congress has failed to exploit the Dalit trust deficit towards the BJP.Gautam’s appointment has also demoralised Congress loyalists, who resent rewarding new entrants. Gautam started his political career under the tutelage of BSP founder Kanshi Ram, marked by anti-upper-caste rhetoric. He joined Congress after his removal from Delhi’s then Aam Aadmi Party government after participating in a programme where about 10,000 Dalits embraced Buddhism.Gautam was named Congress’s Uttar Pradesh in-charge almost a month after he visited Mayawati’s residence in Lucknow unannounced and was turned away. The BSP has consistently rebuffed Congress’s overtures, strengthening the perception that Mayawati works at the BJP’s behest.Gautam tried to meet Mayawati ahead of Rahul Gandhi’s visit to Uttar Pradesh and amid calls for an alliance with the BSP. It was seen as a pressure tactic. The camaraderie between Gandhi and SP chief Akhilesh Yadav continues, but the seat-sharing remains unresolved. This is where Gautam’s role will be crucial. A Congress survey has identified 158 winnable seats, and the party plans to stake its claim on them.The number of seats would matter less than the type of seats. The Congress is also under the impression that the Dalits supported the SP because of its alliance with the Congress and will do so in 2027 also. But the Congress may have also played into the BJP’s hands. Uncertain about Dalit support, the BJP was keen on ensuring the unwavering support of influential Brahmins, who are estimated to be around 10% of the population but are seen as opinion-makers. After Gautam’s appointment, the BJP really believes Brahmins have no other option.Before the BJP’s rise, Congress counted Muslims, Brahmins, and Dalits among its core supporters until the late 1980s, when Congress was voted out of power in 1989. The Brahmins shifted to the BJP, Dalits to the BSP, and the Muslims to the SP. The Congress dilemma persists. It believes it needs the support of one vote bank to win the other. The Congress appointed Gautam, perhaps thinking it would be easier to win over the Jatavs, who have stood with Mayawati even as her party hit rock bottom.