NATO heads to Turkey hoping to avoid a Trump blow-up

disregarding of who you speak with in the defence community of interests, there's a top consensus that many European leaders ar going to be treading lightly over the next few days as they wander the political minefield at the NATO summit in Turkey.

On the one side, there is the desire to say or do nothing to aggravate the already aggrieved U.S. President. On the other side are their domestic audiences, including in Canada, where Donald Trump remains a deeply divisive and unpopular figure. 

It will be the first face-to-face meeting of allies since Trump threatened to take over Greenland, a semi-autonomous territory of NATO member Denmark — a crisis that caused a deep split between the United States and the rest of the Western alliance.

Layered on top of that are recent American threats to withdraw current forces in Europe and limit what help the alliance could receive in a crisis.

Hegseth orders review of U.S. Troops deployed to NATO in fiery Brussels speech

NATO wants 'credible' spending plans from members at next month's summit

The 2029 warning: NATO's race to rearm ahead of Russia

"I think Europeans view President Trump as quite combustible and are quite nervous," said Max Bergmann, the director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, a respected think-tank.

"They're nervous that the summit could be more calamitous, especially now, as there's more domestic political pressure on European leaders to be seen as standing up to Trump."

The argument can be easily extended to Prime Minister Mark Carney, particularly amid ongoing trade tensions including the absence of a CUSMA renewal and challenges to Canada's sovereignty.

Federal officials have indicated there's likely going to be no bilateral meeting between Trump and Carney in Ankara. 

Without question, Carney is going into the summit in a stronger position than any Canadian prime minister in years after his government last spring hit NATO's two per cent of gross domestic product spending target. 

On Monday, he announced the multibillion-dollar purchase of up to 12 submarines from German shipyard TKMS — a measure that's expected to buoy allied solidarity. He's also announced major equipment purchases, including airborne early warning planes and U.S.-manufactured M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS).

Canada negotiating to purchase Saab's GlobalEye radar planes, Carney says

The major sore point remains the ongoing review of whether Canada will buy a full order of Lockheed Martin-made F-35s or switch to the Swedish-manufactured Gripen — an issue that has openly irritated the Trump administration.

"It's going to be the same thing as every other summit when Trump is president, which is everybody's hoping that the alliance survives the summit," said Steve Saideman, the Paterson Chair in International Affairs at Carleton University.

Saideman said we can expect to see "lots of performance to say that the alliance is doing the things that Donald Trump wants."

The Trump administration has announced three significant measures to signal that it's stepping back from NATO and expects European countries and Canada to take larger roles.

U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth recently said that the Pentagon will conduct a global review of U.S. Forces, which could indicate cuts to the number of American troops committed to Europe. He also said the amount of money Washington contributes to the common funding of NATO is being reconsidered.

Hegseth blasts NATO members, announces review of U.S. Forces in Europe

Earlier in the spring, the Pentagon said the list of U.S. Equipment and capabilities available to NATO in the event of a crisis or war would be reduced. Although the list hasn't been made public, published reports suggest there are deep cuts in strategic bombers, fighter squadrons, destroyers and submarines.

European allies have been forced to backfill. NATO's Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, Gen. Alex Grynkewich, last week said that allies have either already matched the previous American contributions or provided alternatives.

At the moment, Saideman said, it's not as much as the equipment as the political signal that the Trump administration is sending.

"It's always been about the American assurance that they would show up when needed," Saideman said. "The Canadians remember the Americans were late to the last couple of world wars and made a big difference in terms of how much suffering went on until that set of capabilities came into play." 

Canada's former top military commander, retired general Wayne Eyre, is also concerned about how the recent decisions are being seen in Moscow.

"This is a clear signal that there is a change in the relationship, a clear sign that Europe and Canada are going to have to continue to step up and do more," said Eyre.

Carney chooses German submarines for Canadian navy fleet

5 key takeaways from Canada choosing Germany's submarine bid

"My concern is that this could contribute to future miscalculation. If there's a signal of limiting U.S. Involvement in any future European war, could that embolden Russia?"

While saying history is an imperfect guide, Eyre pointed to how a U.S. Decision following the Second World War to initially exclude South Korea from its defensive perimeter possibly helped contribute to the 1950 invasion by North Korea. 

Others, such as Rachel Ellehuus, the director general of the U.K.-based Royal United Services Institute, are concerned that global review of where and how U.S. Forces are employed will weaken NATO's position, particularly in Eastern Europe and the Baltic states.

That review is troubling, Ellehuus said, because it's looking at what's in place now — not what could be provided in an emergency.

"What's in place is the backbone of NATO's deterrence and defence posture," said Ellehuus. "Think about the forces in Poland, think about the forward presence in the Baltic states. All of those are extremely important for deterrence now."

Trump says NATO making 'very foolish mistake' on Iran

Trump has repeatedly expressed deep frustration with NATO allies for failing to support U.S. Military operations in Iran. He has criticized the alliance as "ridiculous" and "one-sided," reportedly drawing up a "naughty and nice" list of countries and floating punitive measures such as troop relocations, suspensions and the loss of prestigious NATO roles.

Ellehuus said we can only hope the Pentagon review will be based on facts, not political pique. 

"Those decisions should really be driven by threat assessments, operational requirements and military planning," Ellehuus said. 

"They shouldn't be used in a punitive or rewarding way."

Senior reporter, defence and security

---

---