Keeping up with UP: Will Bharat Ratna to Kanshi Ram tilt 2027 poll scales

THe combat lines ar for the most part drawn, john major canvass issues appear defined, and political loyalties of major caste blocs seem settled ahead of the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections due early 2027. But two major caste groups—Brahmins and Dalits, particularly Jatavs—are seen to be indecisive. Election data and political behaviour indicate the significant role they will play in deciding the winner.The simmering anger among Brahmins and the shift of Jatavs to the Samajwadi Party (SP)-Congress alliance in the 2024 elections are notable. Both can derail the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s hopes to retain power for the third time.BJP poll managers are not overly worried about the Brahmins, as they can be mollified and have limited political options. But Dalits, especially Jatavs, would be hard to please. They continue to be suspicious of the BJP and have options.The Congress-SP alliance won 43 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh and polled 43.52% of the votes in the 2024 polls. The BJP’s seats fell from 62 in 2019 to 33, dropping its overall tally below the majority mark in Parliament for the first time since 2014.To prevent a repeat of the 2024 poll results, the BJP-led government is believed to be considering an emotional card by accepting the long-pending demand for the Bharat Ratna, the highest civilian award, for Kanshi Ram, a Dalit icon and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) founder.The timing of the honour is being debated. Should it be before the 2027 Uttar Pradesh and Punjab elections or the 2029 Lok Sabha polls? Kanshi Ram was born in Punjab, but he achieved much of his political success in Uttar Pradesh by propelling the BSP to power.The 2027 polls are crucial for the BJP’s prospects in the 2029 national polls. The BJP’s seats have declined in the state assembly polls since 2017.Kanshi Ram died in 2006, years after Mayawati succeeded him as the BSP chief. Mayawati has repeatedly demanded the Bharat Ratna for her mentor, saying he dedicated his life to the uplift of the oppressed people. She reiterated the demand in 2024 when Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and SP chief Akhilesh Yadav echoed her.BJP leader Sanjay Paswan demanded the Bharat Ratna for Dalit icons Jagjivan Ram and Kanshi Ram in 2013. He hung the portraits of the two in his Delhi office after his appointment as the BJP’s Dalit Morcha chief.Much has changed since Kanshi Ram was seen as a proponent of anti-upper-caste politics. He galvanised the Bahujan Samaj, or the marginalised communities, Dalits, Scheduled Tribes, Other Backward Classes, and religious minorities, comprising 85% of the state’s population. Kanshi Ram formed the BSP in 1984. His politics were provocative, experimental, and abrasive. His dream of a Dalit Prime Minister died with him.Kanshi Ram is remembered more for empowering Dalits than for his aggressive language against powerful leaders of all parties.The late former chief minister Karpoori Thakur was awarded the Bharat Ratna ahead of the 2025 Bihar polls. Awards are often conferred on political leaders, including known political opponents, for political reasons. But not every time the party in power reaps the electoral dividend.In 2024, the Bharat Ratna was awarded to the late former Prime Minister Charan Singh. A year earlier, SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav was decorated with the Padma Vibhushan, the second-highest civilian award.The BJP gained support from Jats thanks to its alliance with Rashtriya Lok Dal. Charan Singh’s grandson, Jayant Chaudhury, snapped ties with SP and joined the BJP-led alliance ahead of the 2024 polls. The Padma Vibhushan awarded to Mulayam Singh Yadav did not attract his core Yadav voters to the BJP. Bharat Ratna was also conferred on the late former Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao in 2024.Who would gain if Kanshi Ram were conferred with the Bharat Ratna? Observers feel the move may soften but not shift Jatavs to the BJP. The gainer would be Mayawati if she actively participates in the electoral fight in the 2027 election. Jatavs are not averse to the Congress and SP giving them due representation to win their support.The BJP is unsure of gains in Uttar Pradesh. But Punjab may respond differently, and so will other states. Kanshi Ram was, after all, a national figure. As of now, it is time for political calculations and assessment.Dalits form 21% of Uttar Pradesh’s population; 56% of them belong to Mayawati’s Jatav caste. Of the remaining, 33% comprise Pasis, Dhobis, and Koris. They have backed different political parties.