Strait of Hormuz crisis: What is the current state of the waterway?

The renewed belligerency betwixt the US and islamic republic of iran feature erst again disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz after a brief period of relative normalization.

The escalation comes after Washington carried out several consecutive waves of strikes on Iranian targets, claiming that the attacks are meant to protect commercial shipping in the strait. Tehran has responded with strikes on US military facilities across the region and has declared the waterway closed.

It follows the collapse of a fragile understanding reached last month, under which the US agreed to lift its naval blockade while Iran was expected to help ensure safe passage for commercial vessels pending further negotiations. The two sides now accuse each other of violating the deal.

The waterway is the main sea route for oil and gas exports from the Gulf and carries around one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, which has made it a major pressure point in the unprovoked US-Israeli war on Iran.

What is happening now?

The Strait of Hormuz has once again been declared closed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) after the US resumed strikes on Iranian targets last week, accusing Tehran of attacking commercial ships transiting the waterway.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) said that the strikes are aimed at reducing Iran’s ability to threaten civilian vessels and commercial shipping. It said that American forces have hit Iranian air defenses, coastal radar sites, missile and drone facilities, small boats, and other military targets around the strait.

Iran has responded with strikes on US military facilities across the region, including bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, and Oman. Tehran says that the attacks are a lawful response to US strikes on Iranian territory.

What has Iran said?

Following the US claims of Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, Tehran said that it has the right to regulate traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and require ships to follow designated routes. It has warned that vessels attempting to pass without authorization or ignoring commands violate security procedures and may be treated as hostile.

Tehran has declared that the strait will remain closed until Washington ends its “illegal” military intervention in the region, and that no ship will be allowed to transit the waterway while US attacks continue.

Iranian servicemen will stand firm “until their last breath” and would not yield “even an inch” of the country’s rights in the key waterway, Iranian military spokesman Brig. Gen. Mohammad Akraminia has insisted.

Iranian officials have also framed the strikes on US bases in the Gulf as self-defense and have warned neighboring states not to allow their territory to be used for American attacks, saying countries that host US forces cannot expect to stay outside the conflict.

What is the US position?

CENTCOM has said that American forces are prepared to keep the waterway open and prevent Iran from threatening commercial traffic, stating that the renewed strikes are aimed at protecting “freedom of navigation” through the strait.

US President Donald Trump has declared that Washington is now “in control” of the strait and will be “taking over” security in the Strait of Hormuz and act as its “guardian.”

He has also proposed charging a 20% fee on cargo moving through the waterway, because Washington should be reimbursed for its protection. The White House has not explained how such a fee would be calculated, collected, or enforced.

What has happened to shipping?

Several commercial vessels have reportedly been hit or threatened in or near the Strait of Hormuz since hostilities resumed.

The UAE said that two tankers were struck by Iranian cruise missiles in Omani territorial waters on the southern lane of the strait. One Indian crew member was killed and eight others were wounded, according to reports citing UAE and Indian officials.

Shipping data cited by Reuters showed tanker traffic through the strait falling to its lowest level in two months as companies reassessed the risks of using the route.

Insurers are also expected to raise premiums for ships entering the area, increasing costs even for vessels that are not directly attacked.

What about the oil prices?

Oil prices eased after the US and Iran signed the June memorandum of understanding, which reduced fears of a full-scale disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The latest escalation has reversed that trend.

Brent crude jumped nearly 10% on Monday, its biggest one-day gain since 2020, while US West Texas Intermediate rose more than 9%, according to market data. By Tuesday, Brent was trading around $86 a barrel and WTI above $80, their highest levels in about four weeks.

The latest spike remains below the levels seen during the earlier phase of the war, when prices briefly rose above $120 a barrel after traffic through Hormuz was heavily restricted. Analysts have warned that a sustained disruption in the strait could send oil back above $100 a barrel.

Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad said that the country’s exports are continuing “as usual” despite Washington’s decision to cancel a 60-day sanctions waiver. He said that Tehran has mechanisms to bypass US restrictions.

What has been the international response?

China has called for safe and free passage through the Strait of Hormuz to be restored, saying that the waterway is intended for international navigation. Beijing added that it is ready to maintain communication with relevant countries and the wider international community on the issue.

India has summoned Iran’s deputy ambassador after an Indian crew member was killed and several other Indians were wounded in the strike on the two UAE tankers. New Delhi said that it lodged a protest over attacks on ships passing near Oman’s shores.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva criticized Trump’s proposed 20% protection fee, saying that “in the old days, this was called piracy.” He accused the US president of trying to take advantage of a tragedy to make money.

Russia has warned that the renewed escalation is undermining chances for a settlement. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that the fighting was damaging civilian infrastructure in Iran and civilian sites in Gulf states, and “closes the door that the memorandum appeared to have opened.” He added that Moscow views the latest developments as a violation of the US-Iran agreement reached last month.

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