The U.S. Senate is in turmoil. What does it mean for upcoming midterm elections?

The U.S. Senate is in turmoil, followers a demise and hospitalisation.

republican river senator Lindsey billy graham — a key ally to U.S. President Donald Trump — died of an aorta rupture on Sunday. Then on Sunday, Republican Sen. Mitch McConnel revealed that he'd been hospitalized, after weeks of speculation and silence about his health.

And in Maine, Democrat candidate Graham Platner's campaign for Senate has fallen apart, after being accused of sexual assault during what had already been a controversial campaign. Platner has since dropped out.

All of this with midterm elections a month away, where it's possible for control of the Senate to flip from the Republicans to the Democrats.

Washington correspondents Paul Hunter, Katie Simpson and Willy Lowry discuss whether any of these issues could shake up the fight for senate control. 

We've included some highlights below, edited for length and clarity. For the full discussion, listen and follow the podcast.

Paul Hunter: The Senate has 100 seats and every midterms about a third of them come up for election. And so the question always is if one party or the other is going to gain or lose ... So the magic number for Democrats is 51. This is the math part. So at 47, they talk about a net gain of four. They need to hold the states that they have and win in four Republican states. That is not easy. It just isn't. But here we are talking about it because people are, it is possible. A year ago, we wouldn't be having this conversation. But here we are because there's enough, there's been enough negativity around Trump, say Republicans, that maybe this is doable.

So they look at states like Maine. North Carolina, Republican state now, they kind of think they have a lock on that. Maybe Ohio. We've talked about Texas. They dream about that, right? But the catch is, if Democrats don't hold on in Michigan, or they somehow don't hold on in Georgia.

Willy Lowry: Basically all the incumbents have to win.

Paul Hunter: Everything's got to go their way and they've got to end up, to go back to that phrase again, with a net gain of four so that's where things stand as we approach the sort of final race to the finish line in November.

Willy Lowry: At the risk of ruining the rest of this conversation and having mud on my face come November, that seems like a tall order.

Paul Hunter: Yes. But the other thing in their favor is, historically, and it's not always true, but historically, the party in power loses ground, certainly in the House of Representatives. In the Senate, again, it's a bit more complicated because a lot depends on a lot of factors, including the candidates you've got in each state. But Democrats have reason to be optimistic, notwithstanding it's tough, notwithstanding hiccups, notwithstanding certain candidates — looking at you, Maine — but it's possible.

Katie Simpson: And for Canadians who are listening to this, you'll so often hear us talking about the Senate, and it's so important. It is a key part of the legislative branch of the U.S. Government.

So essentially, these are lawmakers that hold the balance of power, and whoever is in control has a really big role in setting the agenda. So not only are they part of the passing legislation process, they're also part of the key approving nominees into certain roles, whether they're Supreme Court justices or whether they are cabinet members, those kinds of things. It's a really important role.

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