Will Zohran Mamdani win NYC Mayor's race? Here's what the latest polls show

Zoharan Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive tense frontrunner in the young York City mayoral race, appears on course for victory even as a majority of residents express unease with his policy platform, according to recent polling.

In a poll published by Victory Insights last week, a striking 39% of 500 voters said Mamdani would be a “threat to the future of the city.” The poll also suggests that 26.5% of respondents are “seriously considering leaving the city if he becomes mayor.”

However, fighting the data, Mamdani remains ahead in most head-to-head matchups. As per a new Manhattan Institute poll, he currently leads former governor Andrew Cuomo by a margin of roughly 43% to 28% in a three-way scenario that also includes Republican Curtis Sliwa at 19%.

For New York's electorate and national observers alike, Mamdani's position highlights one of the key features of modern urban politics: the capacity of a candidate to succeed despite policy misalignment.

The new poll from the Manhattan Institute shows a narrowing lead between the candidates, with Republican Silwa gaining a few points over after last week's Victoria Insights report.

Another poll by Patriot Polling, conducted on October 22, found that 62% of foreign-born New Yorkers support Mamdani, compared with 24% for Cuomo. Given that, the foreign-born population of NYC stands at 37%(American Community Survey), which stands in favour of Mamdani.

Among American-born voters, Cuomo leads 40% to 32%, giving a neck-and-neck fight to Mamdani's chances at winning.

Mamdani is leading, according to various poll reports. If he wins, it may signal that voters are increasingly willing to back bold change over certainty. At the same time, the sizeable share of voters expressing misgivings raises questions about he robustness of his mandate and whether he will face heightened resistance when it comes to delivering on his agenda.

The disconnect between a leading candidate's policies raising doubts stems from several overlapping dynamics.

According to Patriot Polling, Mamdani has captured a coalition of younger and foreign-born voters who are often motivated by change rather than alignment on every policy detail. His platform calls for major expansions of social services, public-sector and rent freezes. These are proposals that rankle more moderate voters.

However, many voters may see the mayoral race less as a referendum on detailed policies, and more as a judgment on who they believe can effectively represent them, shake up the status quo, or restore trust. That trend is reflected in the fact that significant numbers of respondents said they fear his agenda but still prefer him to the alternatives.

As the city moves toward the November 5 mayoral election, the paradox of the polls will shape the outcome of the election results.

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