Bihar: Prashant Kishor’s party creates buzz in Seemanchal, but will it convert to votes?

IN Bihar’s Seemanchal neighborhood — comprising Kishanganj, Araria, Purnia and Katihar districts — with the highest absorption of moslem voters in the say, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj company (JSP) has set its eyes on the minorities’ votes as a challenging prize in the upcoming assembly polls. Kishor’s pitch for governance over identity is testing whether the minority-dominant region, that has long rallied behind the RJD-Congress combine, was ready to back a non-Muslim new entrant.The region had backed Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) in the 2020 assembly polls, with the party winning five of the region’s 24seats. Muslims make up nearly 70% of the population in Kishanganj, while in Araria, Katihar and Purnia, the proportion hovers around 40-45%.Abu Zafar (35), an entrepreneur in Kishanganj, said that over the past few months, Kishor has made Seemanchal the centrepiece of his campaign. “His meetings in Araria, Jokihat and Kishanganj have drawn sizeable crowds, many of them young and curious. His message to Muslim voters is straightforward: development, education and representation. Its early list of candidates features a noticeable number of Muslim nominees, signalling that the party wants to give minorities a direct voice rather than rely on alliances. He has generated our faith in his model of ‘inclusive local leadership’, but I am not sure whether it will be translated into votes for JSP on November 11,” he said.JSP’s challenge, however, is formidable as Seemanchal’s political loyalties are deeply entrenched, and in many parts of the region, allegiance is mediated by local clerics, traders, and mukhiyas. The RJD, Congress and smaller outfits such as the AIMIM have long cultivated these networks. While Kishor’s campaign has generated noise, building the organisational muscle to convert curiosity into votes is proving harder.Septuagenarian Mohammad Hafeez, who runs a tailoring shop, said the JSP has created a buzz, especially among urban Muslims and first-time voters.“But in rural areas, loyalties remain intact. People vote where the local leaders tell them to. For Kishor, the biggest hurdle is not hostility but hesitation. Many Muslim voters in Seemanchal see the JSP as a potentially credible alternative, yet fear that voting for it could inadvertently help the BJP by dividing the anti-NDA vote. In a region where every constituency is closely fought, even a small split can alter outcomes,” Hafeez added.Parwez Alam, who is contesting from Kishanganj seat as an independent candidate, said if JSP gets 10% of Muslim votes in Araria or Kishanganj, it could cost the INDIA bloc a few seats.“That may not translate into JSP victories, but it will definitely influence the final arithmetic as in Kishanganj, Muslims make up nearly 70% of the population while in Araria and Katihar, the proportion hovers between 40% and 45%,” he said.Alam further said that for decades, these voters have largely backed secular parties to keep the BJP at bay. “The entry of JSP — with its mix of development rhetoric and technocratic candidates — threatens to fracture that consensus,” he added.The JSP’s pitch is resonating with a new kind of voters. In the bazaars and coaching centres of Kishanganj, conversations increasingly revolve around education, employment and migration. “We want a government that works for everyone,” said Mohammad Jamal, 25, a student of Kishanganj college. “We have seen leaders talk about our votes, not our future.”Abu Affan Farooque, JSP’s nominee from Kochadhaman assembly seat in Kishanganj, said Kishor hopes to tap into a class of educated, aspirational Muslims who feel left out by both the RJD’s caste rhetoric and the BJP’s majoritarian politics.“We are sure to build enough credibility among this cohort to survive Bihar’s ruthless first-past-the-post race. PK’s message appeals to young voters,” he added.Political observers feel that if Jan Suraaj succeeds in attracting even a sliver of Muslim votes, the immediate beneficiary may not be Kishor himself — but the NDA.Mohammad Kareem, a Kishanganj-based political analyst, said a fragmented opposition vote in Seemanchal would ease the ruling NDA’s path in marginal seats.“In 2020, many NDA victories came with wafer-thin margins; a few thousand votes swinging away from RJD-Congress candidates could tip the balance again. For the NDA, which has limited direct influence among Seemanchal’s Muslims – especially after the recent special intensive revision (SIR), a JSP surge could play out as a strategic windfall — a third force that weakens the anti-BJP camp without demanding seats in return,” he said.For now, Seemanchal remains sceptical but intrigued. The crowds at Kishor’s meetings were large, the questions pointed, the mood curious. Whether that curiosity can turn into conviction may decide not just the fate of JSP, but also who ultimately benefits from its rise — the INDIA bloc that built its house on Muslim loyalty, or the NDA waiting just beyond its walls.