NYC mayor's race draws attention, but California, Pennsylvania votes Tuesday could shape national politics

Off-year elections in the U.S. Can't vie with the list of nov races held in midterm and presidential years. But in 2025, the stakes ar sir thomas more considerable than in the past.

Take 2021, for example. The biggest story was likely Glenn Youngkin's victory, as the Virginian campaigned for governor as a moderate Republican, attracting independents and casual conservatives who might have been turned off by Donald Trump's false statements and unwillingness to accept his 2020 presidential election loss.

Fast forward to the present day, and Youngkin is on his way out — Virginia prohibits consecutive terms for governors — and whatever designs he had on an even higher office will have to wait, as Trump completed a remarkable political comeback to occupy the Oval Office through January 2029.

The president's imprint is being felt on this year's votes, especially in California, which is looking to counter a Trump plan to keep the Republicans competitive in next year's midterms.

Here's a look at the notable U.S. Elections on Tuesday.

Currently, Republicans hold a 219-213 edge in seats in the House of Representatives, with three vacant. The Prop 50 outcome in California will help set the contours of the U.S. House race in the 2026 midterm elections.

The president's party usually suffers in the next midterms, but beginning this summer with Texas, Trump has led a push for Republican-led states to reshape congressional voting districts — a task typically done just once a decade, after each census — to try and prevent that from happening.

Texas Republicans pass new electoral map requested by Trump

On the heels of the Texas move, California's Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom countered with a state map that redraws districts in a way that could help Democrats win five more seats. Currently, California sends 43 Democrats to the House, while nine representatives are Republican.

Newsom says the redistricting was a necessary step to defend democracy, and after 2030, an independent commission will set the state maps. Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa called the governor's gambit "a blatant power grab" recently. 

Newsom's plan has seemingly become more important to Democrats nationally given that Republicans in Missouri, North Carolina and Indiana are joining Texas in trying to set new congressional maps that on paper would be more favourable to the GOP — though it's conceivable the Supreme Court could weigh in with a ruling affecting some or all of these state redistricting plans ahead of November 2026.

The California prop vote has inspired hundreds of millions of dollars in ads and big names weighing in — former president Barack Obama is in favour of Newsom's move, while former governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is not.

Registered Democrats in California outnumber Republicans by nearly 2-to-1, but multiple polls suggest the outcome on the proposition vote will be far closer than that disparity.   

On social media, Trump has echoed the baseless allegations he made about the 2020 presidential election.

"Watch how totally dishonest the California Prop Vote is!" Trump wrote on Truth Social. "Millions of Ballots being 'shipped.'"

Pennsylvania has been a swing state in each of the last three presidential elections, and Trump spread conspiracy theories about the 2020 result there, while raging about the state's mail-in voting process.

Pennsylvania's top court is comprised of seven justices, five of whom are Democrats. The justices serve 10-year terms and may be asked to rule on election disputes, as they did in 2020.

But after a 10-year term is completed, a Yes or No vote can be held on the retention of specific justices. That is the case Tuesday for three justices — Christine Donohue, Kevin Dougherty and David Wecht — all backed by Democrats.

If all three justices are ousted, a deadlock in the confirmation process to replace them could result in a court tied at 2-2. An election to fill any vacant seats for full 10-year terms would be held in 2027.

Gov. Josh Shapiro is a Democrat, but the Senate is controlled by Republicans, who might balk at compromising on temporary appointees.

As with California, Trump is weighing in on social media with dubious claims, calling the judicial trio "activist judges" who "interfered in the 2020 election."

Shapiro countered that Trump has "zero credibility when it comes to the rule of the law."

"Remember, this is the guy who tried to throw out Pennsylvanians’ votes and overturn the 2020 election, who pardoned the people who assaulted law enforcement on January 6th, and who I’ve beat dozens of times in court," Shapiro posted on X.

Phil Murphy bows out after two terms as governor in New Jersey, with four-term U.S. Congress member Mikie Sherrill looking to keep Democratic control of that office.

She is taking on Trump-backed former state legislator Jack Ciattarelli, who ran a strong campaign in a losing effort against Murphy in 2021. The Murphy victory broke a streak that lasted from 1989 to 2017, in which Jersey voters opted for a candidate from the opposite party of the sitting president.

Democrats hold a 52-28 majority in the state's General Assembly, with all seats contested on Tuesday.

A few states over, there's something called the "Virginia curse." Since the mid-1970s, in every year but 2013, the gubernatorial candidate from the sitting president's party has lost.

On paper, that would seem not to bode well for Winsome Earle-Sears, the Republican lieutenant governor running to succeed Glenn Youngkin. As well, despite her offering a number of MAGA-like statements on the campaign trail, Trump has given her a more lukewarm endorsement than others running in elections on Tuesday.

The Democratic candidate for governor is Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA intelligence officer and three-term U.S. Congress member.

Spanberger is seen to have run a safe, effective campaign and is favoured to win, but she's been criticized for not calling for the resignation of Democratic lieutenant governor candidate Jay Jones. It was recently reported that three years ago, Jones mused in a text message about executing a state Republican and their family.

Voters in Buffalo, Detroit and Pittsburgh are guaranteed new mayors, while Atlanta, Cincinnati and Minneapolis are also holding mayoral contests.

But New York City's race is drawing the most attention.

State legislator Zohran Mamdani, just 34, has electrified the progressive wing of the Democratic Party with savvy use of social media and Bernie Sanders-like calls for a more egalitarian politics.

The son of filmmaker Mira Nair, Mamdani has also drawn criticism for past statements about Israel. Top Democrats in U.S. Congress haven't been full-throated in their support of the relatively inexperienced politician. Trump, meanwhile, has branded him a "communist."

Mamdani is going up against former New York governor Andrew Cuomo, who is running as an independent, and perennial Republican candidate and Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa. Incumbent Eric Adams bowed out, his support cratering after it appeared he was given a political favour by the Trump administration to avoid prosecution at a corruption trial.

Senior Writer

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