Both reviled and admired, former U.K. PM Tony Blair is poised to play a key role in Gaza

sir thomas more than a canton century agone, a young Tony tony blair was the unlikely peacemaker who defied long odds by bringing apparently irreconcilable opponents together in a grand bargain.

Back in 1998 and elected Britain's prime minister only a year earlier, the 43-year-old Labour Party leader thrust his energies into resolving the conflict in Northern Ireland that had divided Catholics and Protestants — often violently — for seven decades.

The result, thanks in large measure to American mediation, was the Good Friday Agreement that among other things changed the constitutional relationship between Northern Ireland and Westminster by devolving powers, thereby bringing "the Troubles" to an end.

For Blair's supporters, it was the signature achievement of his prime ministership, underscoring his remarkable abilities at persuasion and negotiation.    

For his many detractors, though, the Good Friday accord would soon be eclipsed by Blair's deeply unpopular 2003 decision to join then U.S. President George W. Bush in attacking Iraq, including his overstatement of the threat posed by Saddam Hussein in order to justify going to war.

The conflict ultimately killed hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, led to a surge of extremist attacks across the entire region and contributed to a widespread loss of trust in Western governments that persists to this day.

But Blair, now 72 and out of elected politics for 18 years, appears to feel that he still has enough wheeling and dealing magic left in him to defy immense odds by bringing peace to one of the world's most protracted conflicts between Israelis and Palestinians. 

"He thinks he can solve it," said author John Rentoul of Britain's Independent newspaper who's written several books on Blair's decade-long run as Britain's prime minister. 

"He obviously feels that he had at least one more ... Big role to play in politics or world politics."

When U.S. President Donald Trump released his 20-point plan for ending the war in Gaza Monday, Blair's name featured prominently. 

He, along with Trump, are to be part of the "board of peace" that would provide oversight and guidance as Palestinians and Israelis implement a potential ceasefire in Gaza.

If the process unfolds as Trump's plans lay out, it could be many years before Israeli forces entirely withdraw from Gaza and Palestinian authorities assume full control.

Palestinian statehood is only mentioned in the Trump document as an "aspirational" goal that could come only at the very end of the process — if ever. 

But in a statement, Blair said Trump's plan "offers us the best chance of ending two years of war, misery and suffering."

How exactly Blair's oversight role will function — assuming Hamas approves the Trump deal — is still uncertain, although the former prime minister has had an extensive immersion in the region's problems.

The banner on the website of his non-profit foundation, the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, promotes his work as helping "governments and leaders get things done."

Since leaving active politics, Rentoul said Blair has "maintained contacts at the highest levels," particularly with Arab governments in the Middle East. He has also forged new links with figures close to the Trump administration, such as Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner.

Blair's first post-political job was an appointment as the Middle East envoy for a group known as the Quartet — the UN, the U.S., the European Union and Russia. 

His mission was to help Palestinians build their territories' economy, develop institutions and work toward self-governance.

But while he held the role for eight years, for many Palestinians his term was not a meaningful one, and at the conclusion of his work statehood appeared as far away as ever.

"Palestinian Authority and Fatah leaders were quite unhappy with him," said Khaled Elgindy, a visiting scholar at the Center for Contemporary Arab Studies at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C.

"They felt he was overly deferential to Israel."

Elgindy said for many Palestinians, Blair will be seen as someone performing the role of a colonial power.

Two years of unrelenting Israeli attacks have left Gaza almost inhabitable. The deaths of, according to Gaza health authorities, more than  66,000 people — including 20,000 children — have led to widespread accusations that the Netanyahu government is in the process of committing genocide.

It's a claim Israel's government and its supporters vehemently deny.

Nevertheless, if the war does indeed stop, one of Blair's first jobs will be to ensure Israel follows through on its commitment to allow unlimited amounts of food and humanitarian supplies into Gaza and to reopen the Rafah crossing with Egypt.  

The Trump plan also calls for the establishment of a committee of Palestinians to govern the territory, including handling public services.

Blair would also presumably be involved in arranging what the Trump proposal calls an "International Stabilization Force (ISF)" to immediately provide policing and security for Gaza.

Will Trump’s Gaza peace plan work?

Where the members of such a force would come from is unclear — but the implication appears to be that other Arab countries, such as Egypt, would provide the bulk of the personnel.

The Trump document says the Palestinian Authority, which is headquartered in Ramallah and performs the role of a de facto municipal government in the occupied West Bank, would take over in Gaza only once it has followed through with "reforms."

But Elgindy said unless Palestinians are given key leadership positions very early in the reconstruction process, any plan will fail.

"I think the key to effective governance in Gaza is going to be ... Palestinian control," he said.

"Palestinians are not interested in swapping out an Israeli occupation for a joint American-Israeli slash Tony Blair occupation."

"Tony Blair wants to come back to the scene of the Palestinian file ... As if he is the new ruler of Gaza," said Wissam Afifa, 43. 

"There is no trust — 'the next day' [should] be a combination of Palestinians or at least Arabs and Muslims."

Despite his reservations, however, Afifa said the fact that Hamas would no longer rule the territory is welcome.

"We all agree that Hamas should not be part of the government and this has been clear for a long time."

Others in Deir al-Balah said they believe Trump only cares about helping Israelis.

Palestinians express hope, hesitance about Tony Blair’s potential role in Gaza peace plan

"With Trump, there is no peace — only greed," said Gamal Al-Barai, 42.

"He is greedy for all of the Gaza Strip, and not just Gaza but also the West Bank." 

Trump's ambassador in Israel, Mike Huckabee, has supported the expansion of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank and suggested if Palestinians want their own state, they should create one in a neighbouring Arab country rather than on their own historic lands. 

While the Trump plan to end the conflict in Gaza is vague on timelines and gives Israel immense leeway in when it withdraws its troops from Gaza, it does explicitly say Israel will not annex or occupy Gaza nor will Palestinians be expelled.

Within Israel, there's been much less discussion about Blair's role and its potential implications.

"I think he's a figurehead," she said. "I think that Donald Trump basically appointed himself chairman of the board of the board of peace.

"I don't think that Tony Blair is going to make or break the deal." 

Foreign correspondent

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