After ‘record’ turnout, polls predict big NDA win in Bihar

BIhar chief government minister Nitish Kumar is on trend to take back for a register 5th term and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) might be headed for a comfortable majority in the high-stakes assembly elections, a clutch of exit polls predicted on Tuesday.The exit polls came after a weeks-long bruising campaign – 121 seats went to the polls in the first phase on November 6 and 122 seats went to the polls in the second phase on Tuesday – that saw record turnouts on the back of the deletions to the electoral roll during the special intensive revision earlier this year. The votes will be counted on Friday.To be sure, exit polls are not always accurate and have often got the verdict wrong in earlier elections, especially when diverse populations, castes and communities are at play. Many pollsters adopted a low-key approach in putting out their data on Tuesday, with some prominent outfits not releasing numbers .Still, the polls were unanimous in terms of the larger direction of the outcome. They forecast that the NDA – comprising the Janata Dal (United), the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) and the Rashtriya Lok Manch – will hold on to power in one of India’s largest states and better its performance from 2020 by achieving a clear majority in the 243-member assembly.The polls suggested that the Opposition Grand Alliance was headed for yet another defeat and might fare worse than its 2020 showing. They also forecast that the third player – strategist-turned-politician Prahsant Kishor – might post meagre electoral returns.In the 2020 assembly elections, the NDA won 125 seats and the INDIA bloc won 110 seats in a close election where the difference between the two major coalitions was just around 12,000 votes.But every exit poll on Tuesday predicted that the 2025 polls might not be a close affair and gave a clear advantage to the NDA. The polls said that the NDA will cross the majority mark of 122. No poll put the NDA tally below 130 and five polls suggested that the ruling coalition could touch 160 – posting its best result since the 2010 assembly elections.If these numbers hold on counting day, it will mean that the NDA maintained the momentum of the 2024 general elections when it won 30 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in the state. It will also mean that Kumar, who switched partners after the 2020 assembly elections, continued to enjoy popularity in the state despite being in power for 20 years.Bihar deputy chief minister Samrat Chaudhary said the final outcome will be much better than what the exit polls predicted. “The NDA’s tally will be higher than what the exit polls have shown,” he added.In contrast, no exit poll predicted an edge for the Opposition alliance – comprising the Rashtriya Janata Dal, the Congress, the Vikassheel Insaan Party and the Left parties – and six pollsters suggested that the coalition might even slip below 100 seats. This could mean the alliance – which was riven by infighting over seat share arrangements, saw at least 12 “friendly fights” and failed to even publicly announce its seat deal – might do far worse than its performance five years ago.If these numbers tally on counting day, it will hold bad news for the RJD, which is struggling to expand its appeal beyond its base among Muslims and Yadavs and where party chief Lalu Prasad is projecting his son Tejashwi as the next chief ministerial candidate. It will also reinforce the Congress’s diminishing footprint in north India and worsen its problems with regional allies.“I don’t believe in exit polls. The main issues in Bihar are unemployment, migration, corruption, and health. People have voted based on these issues. We have assured the youth of employment, so the youth wave was in favour of the Mahagathbandhan,” said Congress leader Tariq Anwar.All exit polls were unanimous in their appraisal of the assembly polls as a bipolar contest, with the third player, the Jan Suraaj, emerging as a minor force and predicted to win a maximum of four seats. Seven polls predicted that Kishor’s party, which is fighting the elections for the first time, could even fail to open its account.The assembly polls in Bihar were the final electoral battle of 2025 and saw a fiercely fought campaign clearly divided on lines of caste, jobs, governance and law and order, and largely stayed away from communal issues.The campaigning was dominated by questions of jobs, development, law and order caste loyalties and women voters as the NDA accused the Opposition of disrespecting Bihar’s culture and ushering in ‘Jungle Raj’ and the INDIA bloc alleged the ruling coalition had failed the state’s young population.The NDA focussed its campaign on its welfare sops and governance promises, contrasting the rule of Nitish Kumar with the Jungle Raj ( a reference to the high crime of the RJD years) unleashed by Lalu Prasad, and accusing the Congress of siding with infiltrators in opposing the special intensive revision of voter rolls.The Opposition’s campaign has stressed on the lack of jobs in one of India’s most impoverished states, promising a government job per family and sops for women. The Grand Alliance has also alleged that the BJP was planning to dump Kumar after the polls, a charge denied by the ruling coalition.