Bihar 2025 result: Between laddoos and exit polls, EC on toes as RJD makes big allegations, NDA preps victory feast

ALlegations continued to vanish, piece preparations for feasts were underway too, forward of the 2025 Bihar gathering election results, counting for which is go down for Friday, November 14.The process begins at 8 am. Trends could be clear early if exit polls are proven right and there is a sweep by the ruling NDA led by the JD(U) and BJP.Follow here: Live updates on the Bihar electionThe opposition, meanwhile, made fresh allegations of possible “electoral fraud”, on Thursday, stressing that exit polls have often been wrong in the recent past.The results will determine whether JD(U) supremo Nitish Kumar, the state's longest-serving chief minister, takes oath yet again, or if the opposition Mahagathbandhan of the INDIA bloc parties RJD and Congress, led by Tejashwi Yadav, manages to effect an upset.EC's preparations for Bihar poll countingThe Election Commission (EC) has said counting will take place at 46 centres across the 38 districts. A total of 7.4 crore voters were eligible to decide the electoral fate of over 2,600 candidates.Polling, in two phases on November 6 and 11, saw a record high level of participation, at nearly 67%. This is the highest turnout in Bihar since elections were first held in independent India in 1951, said the Election Commission (EC).But the days leading up to the verdict have been marked by heightened security, amid sharp allegations by the RJD against the EC and state administration.Security measures at counting centresVoting machines remain sealed inside strongrooms using a “double-lock system”, the premises guarded by a two-tier security arrangement, as per EC officials. The inner tier is assigned to central paramilitary, while the outer rung is managed by the state police. CCTV cameras are in place too.For transparency — especially as the opposition led by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has been questioning the EC's integrity — the counting process will be videoed in the presence of central EC observers and agents deputed by the candidates.The poll code of conduct also remains in force till November 16. The district magistrate of Patna has issued prohibitory orders for a complete ban on processions, political meetings, and demonstrations.What exit polls say on Bihar 2025Exit polls have made near-unanimous predictions of a clear mandate for the ruling NDA. The alliance includes, besides the JD(U) and BJP, the LJP (RV) of Chirag Paswan, Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) or HAM(S) of Jitan Ram Manjhi, and the Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) of Upendra Kushwaha.In its campaign, the NDA sought to projects its welfare schemes — particularly for women, who voted in larger numbers than men — and reminded people of the “jungle raj” days in RJD rule under Lalu Prasad Yadav, Tejashwi's father.The Axis My India survey predicted an NDA victory, but the math carried caveats. It said the NDA would secure between 121 and 141 seats — meaning a simple majority. At the lower end, this would mean one short of majority.The Mahagathbandhan (MGB) could get at least 98, and even be close to 118, just four short of majority. The MGB also includes three communist parties, led by CPI(ML)-Liberation's Dipankar Bhattacharya; Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) of MGB's deputy CM face Mukesh Sahani; and Indian Inclusive Party (IIP) of IP Gupta.The MGB's campaign focus was on “social justice” and backward classes, and the alleged “capture of institutions such as the EC” and “danger to democracy” by PM Narendra Modi-led NDA.RJD's fate to be same as 2020 — largest, but not large enough?Notably, Axis My India also predicted that the RJD would emerge as the single-largest party with 67-76 seats. The RJD had indeed achieved this in the 2020 Bihar election, with 75 seats, even though the MGB fell short of majority with 110 seats versus the NDA's 125.Axis My India's 2025 predictions says RJD would be followed by Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) at 56-62 seats, and the BJP could be third at 50-56. This would mean a revival of sorts for the JD(U), which won fewer seats than the BJP last time and, therefore, had to concede equal space to the BJP in ticket allocation this time.Other polls were more emphatic.Today's Chanakya projected a bumper victory for the NDA, forecasting 148 to 172 seats, compared to 65 to 89 for the MGB. People's Pulse gave 133-159 to the NDA, and JVC predicted 135-150 for the NDA.Political strategist-turned-leader Prashant Kishor’s debut party, Jan Suraaj, was unanimously forecast to not get more than five seats. Kishor had told HT that his party — positioning itself as the long-awaited change for the poverty-stricken state — would either comfortably form the government, or be reduced to less than 10, not in between.Note of caution on exit polls: What about last time?There was at least one outlier among the 2025 Bihar exit polls — a news portal called Journo Mirror. It said the Mahagathbandhan or INDIA bloc will get 130-140 seats, easily crossing the majority mark of 122 in the 243-strong Bihar assembly. The NDA would lose power, as per Journo Mirror, and get 100-110 seats. It gave Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM 3-4 seats.With different methodologies at work, exit polls are tricky business.Most were off the mark in the previous assembly election in Bihar, in 2020, having predicted a win for the Mahagathbandhan. To be fair, it was seen as a tight contest, and MGB was not shown as being particularly far ahead of the NDA.In 2015, when Nitish Kumar was with the MGB, an average of six exit polls or surveys predicted a win for it, but a narrow one. In the results, the RJD-JD(U)-Congress Mahagathbandhan won comfortably with 178 seats. Tejashwi rejects exit polls, fears malpracticeGive this backdrop, RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav rubbished all forecasts, and asserted that the Mahagathbandhan would form the government with a “thumping majority”. Opposition leaders also said the exit polls were trying to “create a narrative”, and said there could be “cheating”.Tejashwi Yadav specifically alleged that the NDA would "make all attempts to slow down the vote count" and try to "murder democracy" by creating fear.More specifically, the RJD raised a dramatic allegation of "vote theft" in the Sasaram constituency. The party said the district administration had "sneaked" Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) into a counting centre without prior notice, and alleged that the camera feeds were “switched off”. Rohtas district magistrate Udita Singh refuted the claim, clarifying that the truck in question carried empty steel boxes. The truck was checked in the presence of several candidates and their supporters, and the entry was recorded in the logbook, she added.Tejashwi still held an online meeting with RJD candidates and district office-bearers, emphasising that the party has to be "alert, vigilant, cautious, and fully capable" of dealing with any kind of “unconstitutional activity”.Sweets ready already? How NDA has reactedLeaders of the ruling NDA, however, have said the exit polls are only showing ground reality — that the alliance will cross the 160-mark as claimed by union minister and BJP leader Amit Shah.Union minister Nityanand Rai attributed this to PM Modi’s influence and CM Nitish Kumar’s “wave of good governance”.Reports by at least one news agency said the BJP has initiated preparations for celebrations too. A BJP worker in Patna has ordered 501 kilograms of laddoos ahead of counting day, it said.Similarly, JD(U) candidate Anant Kumar Singh, who faced a murder case in the middle of campaigning, has set up tents, chairs, and decorations at his residence, preparing to welcome supporters to a celebratory feast on November 14.CM Nitish Kumar visited places of worship to express gratitude for the "peaceful and undisputed" voting in the state.(with inputs from PTI and ANI)