Trump wants a baby boom. Here's why a 'baby bonus' probably won't help fertility rates

He's called himself the " fertilisation chairperson" and the " billie jean king of IVF."

U.S. Chairperson Donald ruff, as he promotes so-called traditional family values, has been on a mission to convince more women to have more babies — including touting efforts to expand in vitro fertilization (IVF), hence the self-proclaimed nickname.

Faced with a birth rate still considered "below replacement," or below the level at which a generation can exactly replace itself, the Trump administration has repeatedly urged women to, well, get to it. 

On the campaign trail, for instance Trump said he wanted a "baby boom." Vice-President JD Vance, told crowds at the anti-abortion March for Life rally in January that he wants to see "more babies in the United States of America."

Last week, Trump ally and Tesla CEO Elon Musk (who reportedly has 14 children with four different women), wrote on X that "low birth rates will end civilization."

And now, the Trump administration is reportedly mulling incentives that could include a $5,000 US "baby bonus," reserving scholarship placements for applicants who are married or have children and motherhood medals for women who have six or more children, according to multiple media outlets.

"Sounds like a good idea to me," Trump told reporters last week when asked about the cash incentive.

But a wave of advocates and experts are arguing otherwise, pointing out that these incentives don't address the systemic issues contributing to a low fertility rate. At the same time, others point out, Trump's administration is slashing programs that help families, such as maternal and child health programs, the Head Start program for low-income families and child-care supports.

"If they were really serious about increasing fertility rates, I think the number one thing they could do is increase paid maternity leave, and then increase the availability of affordable daycare spaces," said Marina Adshade, an assistant professor of teaching at the University of British Columbia who specializes in economics and gender. 

U.S. Births and birth rates have been falling for years. They dropped most years after the 2008-09 recession, aside from a 2014 uptick. 

U.S. Births rose slightly last year, by less than one per cent, according to preliminary CDC data, but experts don't see it as evidence of reversing a long-term decline. The fertility rate is currently 1.63 children per woman, still well below the 2.1 per cent "replacement level."

Canadians are having fewer kids than ever

It's far from a U.S. Problem. Canada recorded its lowest-ever fertility rate for the second year in a row in 2023, according to Statistics Canada data released last fall, at 1.26 children born per woman. It joined the ranks of "lowest-low" fertility countries, including South Korea, Spain, Italy and Japan.

Experts have linked a range of factors with reproductive decision-making, including the rising cost of living, eco-anxiety, and shifting social normals around family size. More people are also delaying parenthood until later in life, which can shorten their reproductive window.

Meanwhile, the recognition that having children is increasingly costly, time-consuming and stressful was reflected in a recent public health advisory issued by the U.S. Surgeon general. 

So the incentives Trump is reportedly considering aren't sitting well with some people.

"Mothers don't need a medal around their necks — we need policies that have our backs," noted parenting website Motherly.

"The proposals the Trump administration are reportedly considering will not open avenues for moms, families and our economy to thrive. They are sheer lunacy — coercive, counterproductive recipes for failure," said Kristin Rowe-Finkbeiner, Executive Director and CEO of U.S. Advocacy group MomsRising, in a news release.

Is parenting harder today than it used to be?

The U.S. Would be far from the first country to attempt to incentivize people to have more children, explained  Adshade.

For instance, Hong Kong offers parents a Newborn Baby Bonus, the Hungarian government offers grants and loans to parents, and the Taiwan government has reportedly spent more than $3 billion US trying to get its citizens to have more children. (One town in Taiwan is even offering people a $50,000 bonus for having a third baby, according to the Taipei Times.)

In 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin brought back Russia's Soviet-era "Mother Heroine" award for women who have 10 or more children. According to the Moscow Times, mothers are awarded a one-time payment of one million rubles (around $16,850 Cdn) as soon as their 10th living child turns one year old.

In general, though, policies like these have been largely ineffective, Adshade said, noting that any fertility increases have been relatively small.

"They are very much a brute force approach to raising fertility rates," Adshade said. "It's actually a very strange idea for a policy."

As an example, Quebec has rolled out many programs to try to boost its fertility rate, including newborn allowances in the 1980s that increased by the number of children and more recently, a number of policies aimed at supporting the balance of parenthood and work. 

And since 2009, in Quebec, women's labour force participation has increased, while fertility has still declined, notes a 2024 case study on Quebec's Parental Insurance Plan. In 2023, Québec recorded one of its lowest fertility rates in its history.

South Korea has also implemented various measures to encourage young people to get married and have children, including tax cuts and subsidies, but also expanded parental leave, increased paternity leave, and added more flexible work schedules for parents. Last year, its fertility rate rose for the first time in nine years, from 0.72 to 0.75.

France's fertility rate, while currently decreasing, is still the highest in the EU — which the Institute for Family Studies credits to its historical pronatal policies, including flexible child care programs, tax breaks and retirement benefits.

At the same time, some of the countries with what are often considered the most family-friendly policies in the world, like Finland and Sweden, still have low fertility rates that are declining even more.

"Pronatalist policies also seem to go against what most people want. Across cultures and religions, people overwhelmingly seek to control their fertility when given the choice," wrote Céline Delacroix and adjunct professor and Senior Fellow in the School of Health Sciences at the University of Ottawa, last month in The Conversation.

Meanwhile, Trump's tariffs — ranging from 10 per cent for imports from most countries to 145 per cent for imports from China — stand to make raising children even more expensive for new parents.

An estimated 90 per cent of the core baby care products and the parts that go into making baby paraphernalia — from bottles and diaper pails to strollers and car seats — are made in Asia, according to the Juvenile Products Manufacturers Association, a U.S. Trade group. The vast majority come from China.

Popular stroller and carseat seller UPPABaby recently told customers it had to raise its prices due to rising import tariffs. Another popular baby product company, Cybex, announced it was raising its prices as of May 1.

Last week, BabyList took out a full-page ad in the Washington Post calling for a tariff exemption on essential baby items.

And as several news outlets have pointed out, Trump's tariff policies seem at odds with his priority to increase the fertility rate. But Trump, for his part, appeared to shrug off the concerns about the impact of tariffs when answering reporter questions after a cabinet meeting Wednesday.

"Well, maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30. Maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally," he said.

Senior Writer & Editor

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