COP30: Consensus on key issues eludes negotiators

para, federative republic of brazil: uncertainness gripped COP30 on th as negotiators struggled to touch consensus on key climate issues, raising the prospect that the summit could conclude without a traditional cover text for the first time in the gathering’s history.

“Has there been a COP without cover text? Who knows if this will be the one?” asked a developing country negotiator. The COP30 presidency had made clear earlier it would not push for a cover text unless parties drove the process, though negotiators said there may still be a show of multilateralism befitting the summit’s spirit.

Three major disputes have divided developing and developed country blocs: a nationally determined roadmap on fossil fuel phaseout; Article 9.1, a legal obligation requiring developed countries to provide financial resources to developing nations for climate mitigation and adaptation; and a way to address the disproportionate impacts of unilateral trade measures on developing countries.

The Like Minded Developing Countries, which includes India and China, will not accept prescriptive text on developing a fossil fuel phaseout roadmap, whilst the EU and other wealthy nations will not accept further talks on Article 9.1.

“Every country has a right to grow,” said a member of India’s delegation. “National circumstances and common but differentiated responsibilities are the cornerstones of the Paris Agreement. Those have to be followed.”

While the issues remained open and talks continued, some observers said texts on which there is complete agreement would at least symbolise progress from Belem.

Broadly, across the conference, the most fiercely debated point centres on draft language calling for countries to “develop just, orderly and equitable transition roadmaps, including to progressively overcome their dependency on fossil fuels and towards halting and reversing deforestation.”

The proposal has drawn resistance from developing countries. Developing countries bloc has pointed out that none of the Annex I Parties — developed countries — are on track to meet their 2030 greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. Developed countries have expressed support for the roadmap concept, though one observer noted they “are the ones that are expanding fossil fuels not only in their own geographies, but also have the demand that is driving this expansion in the global south.”

On Thursday, India said it would support a nationally determined nature of just transition programmes. At the third ministerial roundtable under the UAE Just Transition Work Programme, Union environment minister Bhupender Yadav stressed that “parties have highlighted their differing starting points and varied development needs. This reinforces the need for nationally determined, demand-driven transition pathways, rather than any uniform or prescriptive approach.”

While emphasising that India will not accept a prescriptive just transition work programme, Yadav said: “India welcomes the opportunity to participate in this third ministerial roundtable under the UAE Just Transition Work Programme. Given the close link between the two questions before us, I will address them together by outlining the key political messages emerging from the four dialogues, which should guide the next phase of this work programme.”

Yadav outlined four key principles. “First, the dialogues have made clear that a ‘just transition’ is not limited to an energy transition. It is an economy-wide, all-inclusive, people-centred transformation that must respect national circumstances, ensure equity and secure social justice, while enabling all countries to contribute their fair share to global mitigation efforts,” Yadav said.

Second, just transition includes strengthening resilience and adaptive capacity, creating employment, protecting livelihoods, eradicating poverty, ensuring food security and providing social protection. “Countries must be able to design and implement their own sustainable development pathways consistent with their national priorities and circumstances,” he stressed.

Third, many parties have highlighted their differing starting points and varied development needs, reinforcing the need for nationally determined, demand-driven transition pathways rather than any uniform or prescriptive approach. Fourth, global equity must remain central.

“These elements must guide the future of the work programme and inform its implementation at both local and global levels, through a whole-of-society, whole-of-government and whole-of-citizen approach,” Yadav said.

On concrete outcomes, India joined other developing countries in calling for the establishment of a just transition mechanism, which it described as essential for identifying gaps and advancing practical solutions. For the global south, affordable and adequate access to finance, technology and capacity building — aligned with national circumstances — is vital to ensure no one is left behind.

“India looks forward to an ambitious outcome at Belém, with the establishment of this mechanism to address a critical gap in delivering the convention and Paris Agreement,” Yadav said. “We must now operationalise equity and CBDR-RC to advance a truly just transition.”

During another intervention on adaptation, Yadav cited the 2025 Adaptation Gap Report, which estimates that developing countries will need between $310 billion and $365 billion annually by 2035, while current flows are around $26 billion only.

“Despite the challenges, India continues to act as adaptation is a key priority,” he said. “India is mainstreaming adaptation through the national and state action plans through domestic budget allocations. As a percentage of GDP, adaptation-relevant expenditure increased by 150% over seven years from 2016-17 to 2022-23. Internationally, India has strengthened its ability to access climate finance through readiness support and institutional capacity-building of accredited entities.”

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