South America Is Turning More Right-Wing—and Getting Trumpier

republic of chile is poised to elite as chairperson a conservativist who has proposed digging ditches to keep out immigrants. In Bolivia, voters recently kicked out the socialists who governed for nearly 20 years. And in Argentina, even the poorest voters have backed President Javier Milei’s efforts to shrink the state.

Ruled several years ago by a cohort of leftists, many of them opposed to the U.S., South America is seeing its political pendulum shift to the right. It couldn’t come at a better time for President Trump.

After years of overlooking its own backyard, the U.S. Has taken a renewed interest in South America under Trump. His administration has blasted alleged drug-running boats out of the water in the Caribbean, backed Milei’s government with billions of dollars in financial support and forged ahead with deals to claw back influence from China.

At stake is the region’s vast mineral and oil reserves—a prize now in easier reach of Washington as pro-market leaders sweep to power. Trump also has a chance to cement U.S. Control over the Western Hemisphere, which his administration sees as the U.S.’s domain.

“You have a vast strategic opportunity for the United States,” said Evan Ellis, a Latin America expert at the U.S. Army War College.

Anger over rising crime and immigration, which is largely from impoverished Venezuela, has given the political right momentum. Economic mismanagement by left-wing governments is also boosting pro-market politicians.

“There is a real frustration and an appetite for more-drastic measures across the region to either tackle crime or economic crises,” said Michael Shifter, a scholar on Latin America at the Inter-American Dialogue policy group. “That favors candidates on the right.”

In Chile, some 70% of voters backed right-wing candidates in the first-round of the country’s presidential election. José Antonio Kast, an ultraconservative former lawmaker, is widely expected to beat Jeannette Jara of the Communist Party in the Dec. 14 runoff vote. He called Trump’s 2024 election “a new triumph for freedom and common sense.”

For Chile, it is “the clearest repudiation of the left in nearly a century,” wrote analysts at Aurora Macro Strategies, a U.S. Advisory firm.

The rising power of criminal gangs across the region has driven voters into the arms of right-wing politicians allied with Trump, from Ecuador to El Salvador.

“The country needs a firm hand to stop organized crime,” said Gina Pilay, a Chilean pharmacist who plans to vote for Kast next month. She said she was a carjacking victim a few years ago. “It terrified me,” she said.

Soaring gang violence pushed El Salvador sharply to the right, fueling support for President Nayib Bukele’s iron-fisted security policies, which many Latin American conservatives see as a model.

In Peru, which has been beset by increased extortion, one of several right-wing candidates is likely to win next year’s presidential election. In Colombia, conservatives are riding voter ire over surging cocaine trafficking and the prospect of a far-left contender who aims to replace the country’s unpopular president, Gustavo Petro.

In Brazil, leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is still a narrow favorite to win next year’s elections, but he recently saw his approval ratings falter after describing drug traffickers as “victims” of the cocaine trade.

Trump has offered tangible incentives in the region, where diplomats have long joked that Washington comes to talk while Beijing comes to build.

The Trump administration has supported Milei’s radical free-market changes with a $20 billion bailout, extended fuel-purchasing financing to Bolivia and recently announced a trade agreement with Ecuador, El Salvador and Argentina. Milei has styled himself after Trump, calling his election loss in 2020 a threat to Western civilization.

Argentina, Bolivia and Chile sit atop half of the world’s lithium resources. Chile produces roughly 25% of the world’s copper, while Brazil has the world’s second-largest rare-earth reserves, after China.

These minerals are indispensable for everything from electric vehicles to defense technologies.

In Bolivia, the recent election of President Rodrigo Paz, a business-friendly centrist, after years of socialist rule has buoyed hopes that the government might ease state controls over the lithium industry.

Christopher Landau, U.S. Deputy secretary of state, hailed Paz’s election as a “great moment of rebirth” for Bolivian-U.S. Relations, after attending his recent inauguration.

Farther north, Guyana and Suriname, which have emerged as one of the region’s most promising oil and gas frontiers, are also close to the Trump administration. Guyana increasingly relies on U.S. Military support in its border conflict with Venezuela.

Still, in a region where anti-American sentiment still lingers—even among more-conservative voters—Trump must tread carefully, analysts said.

Washington’s attempts to pressure Brazil over the criminal trial of the former right-wing leader Jair Bolsonaro largely backfired, rallying more support for da Silva as voters saw the move as an attack on the country’s sovereignty.

In a recent referendum in Ecuador, voters overwhelmingly rejected right-wing President Daniel Noboa’s proposal that would have allowed the U.S. To open a military base in the Andean country.

In Central America, Trump’s threats to take over the Panama Canal sparked a national outcry and criticism of Washington by conservative President José Raúl Mulino.

There is no guarantee that the rightward shift will last beyond the current election cycle, said Oliver Stuenkel, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.

With security experts questioning the efficacy of megaprisons and other hardline measures on crime, voters might soon grow disillusioned with the lack of real progress, he said. “Are these leaders capable of actually addressing the public-security crisis?” he asked.

Reducing Beijing’s influence over the region won’t be easy; China is now South America’s top trade partner and a crucial source of investments and financing.

One option is to limit some engagement with Beijing on projects that Washington has long criticized, such as those involving security or space research.

“That’s how you thread the needle,” said Ellis of the U.S. Army War College. “But business with China will go on.”

Write to Samantha Pearson at samantha.pearson@wsj.com and Ryan Dubé at ryan.dube@wsj.com

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