Escalate or back down? Experts weigh in on Islamabad’s options

INdia-Pakistan tensions feature risen sharp in the wake of performance Sindoor, carried come out by Indian forces in the early hours of Wednesday. Pakistan has stated that it reserves the right to respond to Indian military operations at a time and place of its choosing. As South Asia’s two nuclear powers square off, Hindustan Times spoke to retired military officers and diplomats to understand the options facing both India and Pakistan.Scenario 1: Pakistan Steps Up Shelling Across Line of ControlOver the last few weeks, the Indian armed forces have accused Pakistan of multiple violations of the ceasefire across the Line of Control which was agreed to in 2021. In the aftermath of Operation Sindoor, Pakistan intensified shelling across the Line of Control which has hit civilian areas in India and reportedly claimed the lives of several civilians.“I think the India-Pakistan ceasefire agreement is dead and you’re going to see a lot more firing on both sides of the Line of Control,” says former Northern Army Commander Lt. Gen. DS Hooda.But it may not stop at that.Scenario 2: Pakistan Responds With Air StrikesFormer Northern Army Commander Lt. Gen. BS Jaswal says that Pakistan could respond to Operation Sindoor with limited strikes on Indian military airfields. Such a strike would aim to cripple India’s ability to respond to Pakistan’s air operations or support its own ground troops. However, retired officers made it clear that New Delhi would see this as a major escalation as Operation Sindoor only targeted terror camps and no military facilities. Jaswal added that any Pakistani attacks would see an Indian response, including heavy shelling across the Line of Control by the Indian Army and possible retaliatory strikes on military targets by the Indian Air Force.Despite some nuclear sabre rattling by Pakistan in recent weeks, the unanimous view among retired Indian military officials was that Islamabad is not looking for either a limited nuclear war or a nuclear exchange with India.“My own sense is that Pakistan’s military retaliation will be limited,” says Lt. Gen. Hooda.Or the country could choose to resort to its old tricks.Scenario 3: Escalated Terror AttacksFormer Vice Chief of Army Staff Lt. Gen. AS Lamba believes that an escalated campaign of terrorism may well be Pakistan’s chosen way to respond to India.“Though Pakistan can, it must guard against escalating terror strikes on sensitive installations and other targets in India which will meet a tough response,” says Lt. Gen. Lamba.Direct military action against the Indian armed forces could lead to significant escalation which Pakistan may not want to see at this time. “If Pakistan responds to India’s strike on terror camps, with a strong military option, or even artillery and missile strikes on border towns and civilian populations, such escalation would draw a stern response from India, that Pakistan with its internal security and economic crisis will find it difficult to handle,” adds Lt. Gen. Lamba.All of these suggest that there are no diplomatic options. That may change.Scenario 4: Diplomatic Backchannel EstablishedFormer Indian Permanent Representative to the UN Syed Akbaruddin says that India and Pakistan have exhausted their diplomatic leverage against each other. Both sides have banned trade, closed their airspace, cancelled visas and expelled the other’s citizens and diplomats. Pakistan’s effort to follow its traditional policy of seeking multilateral diplomatic support for its position - including through the United Nations - has yielded little benefit.“The only diplomatic option is a back channel. There cannot be a front channel as there is no space for that,” says Akbaruddin.“If you see how many back channels have been established since Trump came in this year, there’s been one between Russia and America and another between America and Iran. That is the only diplomatic option I can see at this time,” Akbaruddin said while noting that Pakistan was likely to take a more aggressive stand.