US and India should build strong strategic ties to balance China

THe briny device characteristic of international political relation today is rivalry betwixt the two major powers in the world – the US on the one hand and China on the other. Over the past four decades, China has risen quickly and today is a $ 19 trillion economy, closing in fast on the US which has a GDP of $30 trillion. What is significant is that along with rapid economic growth, China has also made great strides in technology, in the quality of its educational institutions, in levels of public health, in the speed with which it builds quality infrastructure and in manufacturing complex products. Today, China is a leader in many areas of human endeavour including artificial intelligence, robotics, electric vehicles, renewable energy and of course manufacturing. Scholars have marvelled at the quantity of research output of Chinese universities and think tanks as well as how quickly firms in that country adapt such advances to the market place.China challenges the US in fields such as space exploration, nuclear energy, defence technology and products. It is already the number one trading nation in the world as well as the largest manufacturing country of the globe. What is important to note here is that rapid economic progress not merely leads to improvements in the quantity and quality of goods and services but also inevitably to forward movement in all areas of a nation’s well-being. Growth is a tide which lifts all boats.Today, the competition between the US and China is mainly focused on trade and technology. Realising that semiconductors are key items in much of the modern world’s products, the US restricted the kind of chips which could be sold by the West to China, hoping to slow down the progress its peer competitor was making. This led to a redoubling of investment and effort in China itself so that it began to manufacture many more varieties of chips. In turn, China placed controls on the export of rare earth minerals which hobbled the production of many American top end electronic, automobile and defence items. Today, we see a mad scramble in the US to diversify the rare earth supply chain away from China’s domination, so much so that Washington even believes it can get rare earths from Pakistan.In any case, what is important to realise is that the competition between China and the US is going to be a feature of geopolitics for many more decades to come and that this competition is likely to get more intense and furious. In such a scenario, most countries in the world do not want to choose between these two sides and would like to continue doing business with both. If, however, a time were to come in the near future when countries have to choose between one or the other major power, it would be a difficult choice to make for almost all other nation states.Now, take a look at international statistics of the GDP of nations based on purchasing power parity (PPP) in 2025. China is number one with a GDP of $40 trillion, the US is second with a GDP of $30 trillion and India is third with a GDP of $18 trillion. Russia is a distant fourth with $7 trillion. Therefore, India is a factor in the competition between China and the US. India is being wooed by both major powers since that would tilt the balance in world politics and economics. So, what should India do?India must continue to steer between the two major powers, keeping both of them in play. However, we need not choose sides too early in this game. Our major attention should be on ourselves – on our internal, domestic sector. We have to build up our own strength. This would mainly be our economic strength, since that would imply an enhancement of our comprehensive national power. Enhancing the proportion of GDP from manufacturing is critical to increasing employment opportunities for our people. Especially, in today’s world where everything and anything is being weaponised, we have to produce many more critical items in India itself. The government is doing so – look at the attention being paid to establishing a semi-conductor ecosystem in India. Artificial intelligence is another sunrise sector where much public investment is being seen. Defence production within India is receiving a boost never experienced before. Mobility, renewables, specialty chemicals and active pharmaceutical ingredients are all being focused on anew. By enhancing our own power coefficient, we shall be able to play the game of international politics even better with the two major nations of the globe. Hence, India has to exhibit strategic patience while moving forward quickly on its economic growth. An annual growth of 6.5% is not sufficient, we must aim for 8% growth per annum. Recent reform measures undertaken by the government augur well for achieving this target on a continued basis.In the future, if we are indeed forced to choose sides between the major powers, the one further away from us in geographical distance might be our choice. Remember, we also share values, and therefore interests, with that power. Contrarily, the power on our borders is in a position to constantly trouble us and also does not have the same values as us. Furthermore, there are many structural issues which will continue to bedevil India-China relations, including the outstanding boundary problem and China’s close ties with Pakistan, including in operational military matters. Therefore, in such an eventuality, the choice is clear. The US and India must build a strong strategic partnership to balance Chinese power. Washington will also know that the competitor it has to handle right now is China. Therefore, a partnership with India makes eminent sense. President Donald Trump may currently be looking at micro issues which affect his domestic standing. Eventually, he will comprehend the big picture reality of geostrategy.Gautam Bambawale, a former Indian ambassador to China and Pakistan, is Trustee of Pune International Centre.The views expressed are personal.