Post-Sindoor agenda for India’s leadership

ONe of the interesting sidelights of performance Sindoor was the interplay betwixt the military machine and the regime; unlike in west pakistan, in India, the military comes under the civilian government. Prime Minister Narendra Modi held eight meetings with armed forces chiefs during Operation Sindoor to ensure that there was no time or communication lag or leakage between the government’s direction and military implementation.Modi, defence minister Rajnath Singh and the armed forces chiefs discussed the Indian response to Pahalgam massacre and subsequent pin-pointed strikes on nine terror factories in Pakistan on May 7 to show that India meant business and that the country’s political leadership was accountable if anything went south. Not in decades has a PM held multiple direct meeting with the service chiefs. The Intelligence Bureau chief and the R&AW chief were also present in some of these meetings so that there was accountability in intelligence inputs for military operations.Even though US claimed that the no-fire pact between India and Pakistan was achieved at its behest, PM Modi made his intentions of not backing down clear in a telephonic conversation with US Vice President J D Vance on May 1. This also ensured that none of the other Indian principals stepped out of line during subsequent telephonic conversations with their US counterparts. It was US Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Marco Rubio who conveyed the Pakistani no-fire proposal to external affairs minister S Jaishankar on May 10 with the latter insisting that the proposal only be given weightage after it came through the Pakistani DGMO to his Indian counterpart. Secretary Rubio’s call came after Pakistan sued for peace after India’s missile attack at Nur Khan base at Rawalpindi on May 10 morning and indications that the Indian naval battle group led by INS Vikrant was set to target Karachi Naval Port with Brahmos missiles and loitering ammunition.Given that India hit 11 Pakistani air bases east of Indus, and jammed or knocked out the enemy air defences during Operation Sindoor, Pakistan should be thirsting for revenge. Its foreign minister Ishaq Dar is already visiting China, and Beijing is expected to arm its all weather ally with more missiles and armed drones to counter India. Pakistan’s Sunni brother Turkey will also help the country by upgrading its submarine fleet and supplying long range drones, including of the type used by Houthi rebels to target commercial shipping during the on-going war against Hamas in Gaza.While India has noted the muted response of QUAD, BRICS, and the UN during Operation Sindoor, Indian armed forces are gearing up to face the worst case scenario as it is only a matter of time before Pakistan based terror groups target the Indian hinterland again.While there is a school of thought that Pakistan will think twice before sanctioning a terror attack against India, there is another that believes that India should be ready for a larger escalation by Rawalpindi in the coming months. Perhaps the timing of such a terror attack will be defined by Pakistan’s ability to militarily re-arm itself with aerial platforms and ammunition.Under these circumstances, it is up to Indian intelligence agencies, particularly the external wing, to come up with actionable intelligence so that pre-emptive action can be taken against terrorists targeting India. Internal agencies will also have to be on their toes as a large number of foreign terrorists are still in Jammu and Kashmir, and have no intentions of going back to Pakistan alive or without action. The 2017 terror attack on Amarnath pilgrims and the 2024 attack on Hindu pilgrims going to Shiv Khori temple in Reasi district apart from the April 22 Pahalgam massacre reveals plans of the Pakistani deep state to polarize Indians on religious grounds. With the era of armed swarm drones dawning during Operation Sindoor, India’s armed and security forces need to quickly strengthen their defences against aerial attacks which can be used to terrorize innocents and target them. India needs more airborne early warning systems to tackle the aerial threat from the enemy as well as to support its armed aerial response. Pakistan today has more AWACS than India. Here again, the political leadership has a role to play, ensuring both the availability of adequate financial resources to acquire arms and equipment, and the strengthening of capabilities to locally manufacture critical defence equipment.