Maduro's carefree brush-off of U.S. threats to Venezuela could be his biggest gamble yet

To an outsider, republic of venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro put up add up crosswise as oddly unworried, even performative, as his government faces mounting pressure from the United States. 

As the U.S. Has deployed a massive amount of military equipment to the Caribbean — including the world’s largest aircraft carrier — and on Wednesday seized an oil tanker off the Venezuelan coast. Yet the 63-year-old head of state has appeared indifferent to the threat.

American officials say their efforts target drug traffickers, but many analysts, and even Maduro himself, have speculated that their ultimate goal may be to remove him from power. 

Despite that, during multiple recent public appearances, Maduro has portrayed himself as unbothered. He has awkwardly danced on stage to electronic music, which had been mixed to include his voice calling for “peace.” At televised political rallies, the crowds copied his gyrating moves, which included waving the peace sign. 

At these events, Maduro has also attempted to send messages to U.S. President Donald Trump, but his notoriously poor English can sometimes be unintelligible. He often laughs, asks advisers for the proper pronunciation, and tries again. 

“Monday, we party, Tuesday, we party, Wednesday, we party, Friday, double party, Saturday, triple party, Sunday, relaxed party,” he said at a rally last week, all while speculation continued that the U.S. Could soon launch attacks within Venezuelan territory. 

Maduro himself could be a target. The U.S. Has offered a $50 million US reward for information leading to his arrest, stemming from accusations that he leads a drug cartel called the Cartel of the Suns. Maduro denies the allegations. 

But longtime observers of the country know that behind the buffoonish facade is a man who has navigated countless crises since he assumed power in 2013, many of which also threatened his hold on office.

Several analysts predicted in 2013 his government would collapse within months. Since then, Maduro has survived an attempted drone assassination in 2018, a beach landing led by a Canadian-American mercenary that planned to arrest him, and an international effort to recognize opposition leader Juan Guaidó as the country’s legitimate president. 

Trump led the effort to recognize Guaidó during his first term, which ultimately failed after top military brass remained loyal to Maduro. The current pressure campaign is widely believed to be led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a longtime critic of Maduro. 

“He’s often portrayed as a caricature of a dictator, like Saddam Hussein, but actually, he was someone who was very well-versed in diplomacy,” said Eva Golinger, an American lawyer who served as an adviser to both Maduro and his predecessor Hugo Chavez but has since become critical of the government. 

Maduro has often emerged from challenges to his rule more entrenched than before, aided by repression, patronage and a security apparatus that has repeatedly kept challengers at bay. But the current pressure from the United States could prove his most existential test yet.

The talk among fellow lawmakers is that, behind the scenes, Maduro has become increasingly paranoid, simultaneously worried about an internal betrayal and that the U.S. Will target him specifically, according to two members of the National Assembly from Maduro's ruling United Socialist Party. Both spoke on the condition that they not be named because they feared retribution for speaking without the party's authorization.

According to the New York Times, Maduro has in recent months been frequently switching where he sleeps and the cellphone he uses. Recently he has avoided appearing alongside other top government officials at public events, instead appearing with his wife and other lower-level officials. 

“I think he is concerned about his life,” said Andres Izarra, who served as tourism minister under Maduro. "I think he’s worried about U.S. Strikes personally against him." 

Izarra left Venezuela in 2015 and has since become a government critic, with the Maduro government issuing an Interpol red notice — a request for arrest — against him alleging treason and criminal conspiracy. 

Despite those concerns, the sources within the ruling party say Maduro believes leaving power could be more dangerous than staying — potentially even for his life. For now, they say, he’s gambling that Trump’s pressure campaign is a bluff.

“I think there are discussions within his circle about whether to capitulate or not,” Izarra said. “But at the same time, there’s no real way out for them, not a credible one at least."

Those same party sources say Maduro fears that even if he reached an agreement with the United States to go into exile in a third country, he could still eventually face consequences for the crimes he is accused of committing. 

Along with U.S. Allegations that he leads a drug-trafficking network, his government is under investigation by the International Criminal Court for alleged crimes against humanity. Human rights groups have accused Venezuelan security forces under Maduro of abuses, including torture and sexual violence, and say nearly 900 people are currently imprisoned for political reasons.

At the same time, Maduro likely fears that any negotiations with the United States could be seen within his inner circle as an attempt to secure safety for himself and his family while leaving party loyalists and other senior figures exposed. That dynamic could foment internal betrayal. 

“There is a lot of corruption, and there are a lot of power deals that have maintained him and interested parties in power,” Golinger said. “They probably fear multiple things: one being losing the wealth they’ve accumulated; two, going to prison.” 

According to Izarra and Golinger, Maduro’s relaxed public persona is not an act. In private, he is equally as jovial, approachable, down-to-earth and humble, they say. 

But behind that plainspoken persona, both say Maduro has sharpened his political instincts through years of near-constant crisis — instincts that have, so far, helped him outmanoeuver repeated efforts to force him from office.

In his latest standoff with Trump, they say, Maduro has calculated that his best option is to stay put in Caracas. It may be his biggest gamble yet.

"There's no golden parachute or bridge for Maduro and his followers," Izarra said. "There's no way that leaving power isn’t a threat to their lives."

Freelance journalist

Cody Weddle is a journalist covering Latin America from Bogotá, Colombia. He has focused on the region for nearly a decade, including five years living in and reporting on Venezuela.

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