Analysts peg minority vote, anti-incumbency as key UDF win factors in Kerala local body polls

ACombining of integration of nonage votes and soaring anti-incumbency sentiment against the commie company of India (Marxist)-led government in Kerala helped the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) post its victory in the state’s local body polls, analysts said.The UDF won over 500 of the 941 grama panchayats, 79 of the 152 block panchayats, 7 of 14 district panchayats, 54 of the 87 municipalities and 4 of the six municipal corporations, the results provided by the State Election Commission (SEC) showed.In doing so, it beat the LDF and the third-placed NDA in all levels of local body governance, except district panchayats, where both the UDF and the LDF have equal numbers.A closer look at the results indicates that the UDF was able to sweep local bodies in districts like Kottayam, Pathanamthitta, Idukki and Ernakulam in central Kerala, where Christians form a big chunk of the electorate and where the coalition has traditionally had an advantage over the LDF. Along with Malappuram, where the Congress-IUML combine decimated the LDF, these districts are seen to have been instrumental in the big victory of the UDF.Consider these numbers. In Pathanamthitta, a district where the UDF currently has no MLAs, the Congress-led front won 34 of the 53 grama panchayats (64%) and 7 of the 8 block panchayats (87%). In the 2020 polls, the numbers were 35% and 20% respectively. In Kottayam, this time, it won 62% of the gram panchayats and 81% of block panchayats. In 2020, the numbers were 28% and 9% respectively. In the Muslim-majority Malappuram district, where the IUML is the dominant partner, the UDF won 92% of gram panchayats and 93% of block panchayats. In 2020, the numbers were 71% and 80% respectively.The interest among voters for the UDF extended to urban areas too. This time, it wrested power in Thrissur, Kochi and Kollam corporations from the LDF and retained power in Kannur corporation with a good majority. In Kozhikode, where it has never come to power in the last 40 years, it came close – winning 26 to LDF’s 34 out of a total 76 wards.Among municipalities, the UDF is slated to come to power in 54 of the 87 bodies, up 13 from last time. In Alappuzha district, a stronghold of the LDF, it won 5 of the 6 municipalities. It won both municipalities in Idukki, 4 of 6 in Kottayam, 12 of 13 in Ernakulam and 11 of 12 in Malappuram.Malayalam newspaper Manorama, mapping the results onto Assembly constituencies, reported that the UDF had a lead in 80 of the 140 seats in the state. The halfway mark is 71.J Prabhash, a former political science professor at Kerala University, said that both Christians and Muslims, traditional vote-banks of the UDF and which in recent times had abandoned the coalition, have voted en-masse for it this time.“One of the key reasons behind the UDF victory in the polls is minority consolidation. The results in central Kerala show that Christians in large numbers have voted for it. Due to the Pinarayi Vijayan government taking a soft approach towards majority communalism, Muslims especially in north Kerala have drifted back to the UDF,” said Prabhash.He said that CM Pinarayi Vijayan and the CPI(M) leadership refusing to admonish SNDP general secretary and Ezhava community leader Vellappally Natesan for his anti-Muslim remarks created heartburn within the Muslim community.“The CPI(M) perhaps does not want to antagonise the Ezhava community which had drifted towards the BJP in the last Lok Sabha elections. But we need to remember that community leaders like Natesan do not wield the kind of influence like before. People today don’t vote on the basis of what community leaders say,” he added.He also underlined that there is an anti-incumbency wave in Kerala, aided by the developments in the Sabarimala gold theft case. In the case of misappropriation of gold assets from the Sabarimala temple, the police SIT has arrested several persons including two key CPI(M) leaders.“The case I believe had an impact on all voters, not just Hindus. Because what happened was theft of gold at a religious place. That will influence the minds of all voters,” he said.NP Chekkutty, a prominent analyst, said even though the Left parties have traditionally done well in local body polls due to their superior organisational strength, this time, divisions in the social fabric of the state and disenchantment among CPM cadres led to a defeat for the LDF.“There is deep polarisation in society today. The comments that Natesan made have the tacit approval of the chief minister and the CPI(M). So naturally, there was minority consolidation of votes. But the CPI(M) expected a counter consolidation of Hindus. But that did not happen. A section of the Hindu votes even went to the BJP,” said Chekutty.“The CPI(M) is in a serious crisis today and workers are unhappy. There is a top-down approach and the gulf between workers and leaders have widened. In the Malabar region, there has been significant erosion of votes even in CPM citadels,” he added.