Poll suggests Alberta voters' honeymoon with Danielle Smith and UCP endures

< warm>As with all polls, this i provides a snap in clip. 

This analysis is one in a series of articles from this research. More stories will follow.

"We haven't seen a honeymoon last this long for a politician since the Ralph Klein days," Brown added. 

Twenty-four months after Smith's United Conservative Party defeated Rachel Notley's Alberta New Democrats, the polling suggests the premier continues to hang on to the support that propelled her to a majority in 2023. Now, 52 per cent of decided and leaning Alberta voters say they'd cast a ballot for the UCP. 

The poll suggests the UCP would cruise to a majority, winning 61 ridings, while the NDP could drop from the 38 seats it won in 2023 to 26 seats in the provincial legislature.

In the 2023 election, the UCP won with 52.6 per cent of the vote and 49 seats. The NDP captured 44 per cent of the vote share, mostly in Alberta's two major cities.

The recent poll suggests nearly four in 10 Albertans (38 per cent) would vote NDP. Seven per cent of respondents said they remain undecided. 

Albertans' positive impressions of Smith, in contrast, have ticked up over the past year, according to the survey. 

The governing UCP embarked on an ambitious — and often controversial — agenda since winning power two years ago. 

Despite worries about "confusion and chaos" from front-line workers regarding the breakup of Alberta's health ministry and the lingering public concerns over an Alberta-only pension plan and establishing a provincial police force, four in 10 Albertans gave Smith high marks on a scale from zero to 10 for how impressed they are with the premier.  

Many Alberta voters remain impressed with Smith. 

Last year, Smith's overall favourable impression rating was 4.5 out of 10. This year, Smith's overall rating ticked up to 4.7.  

"When Danielle Smith was first elected leader of the UCP, Albertans were very cautious," said Brown. "The longer that they know Danielle Smith, the more comfortable they're getting with her." 

Smith's persistent hardline posture with the federal Liberal government appears popular with Alberta voters. 

Three-quarters of respondents who support holding a referendum on Alberta breaking away from Canada also rank Smith between seven and 10.

And almost seven in 10 (69 per cent) of those Albertans who approve of Smith's efforts to reset the Prairie province's relationship with the federal government give the premier high marks. 

Calgarian Lisa Farrell shares that view, saying she likes Smith's support for the province's oil and gas industry.

"I think she's really good," said Farrell, whose husband lost his job in the oilpatch last year. "I think she's doing a good job for the province and I think she's standing up for us and sticking up for us."

Smith's impression scores have risen dramatically since she became premier in the fall of 2022. At that time, 54 per cent of Albertans said they were not at all impressed by the former talk radio host and Wildrose Party leader.   

Calgary voter Dave Gibson remains unimpressed with Smith, citing the UCP overhaul of Alberta's health-care system.  

Naheed Nenshi, who won the leadership of Alberta's NDP last summer, received an average impression rating of 4.1 in the poll. 

Nearly three in 10 Albertans (27 per cent) gave the former Calgary mayor top marks, but four in 10 were not impressed with the NDP leader.  Ten per cent remain unsure.   

In comparison, only three in 10 Albertans gave Nenshi's predecessor, Rachel Notley, low scores in the spring of 2023.  

"When Rachel Notley resigned and we heard that Nenshi was going to be running, there was all sorts of excitement. He was seen as a powerful political communicator," said Brown. "But things seem to have fizzled out since the leadership race. He's having a hard time winning Albertans over at the moment." 

Poll suggests Albertans are split on their impressions of Danielle Smith

Love them or hate them, Albertans, on average, think the leaders of the two main parties are more ideologically extreme than them. 

When it comes to ideology, the survey suggests Albertans see themselves as pretty middle-of-the-road on the left-right spectrum.

On average, Albertans skewed slightly right at 5.8 when asked to place themselves on a scale from zero to 10, where zero means left and 10 means right. 

Using the same scale, Albertans polled said Smith was to the right of them at 7.9 out of 10.

And they think Nenshi is to the left of them at 2.9 out of 10. 

"There's people who don't quite know where he stands, so I think his biggest problem is to get Albertans to understand what he is as leader of the NDP," said Brown. 

"And then I think he has to show Albertans that he can hold views that are closer to the centre, that he's not a left-wing extremist on every issue they care about."

Nearly six in 10 Edmontonians (58 per cent) voted for the NDP in the last provincial election.

Poll results show the NDP and governing UCP in a statistical tie right now, with 47 per cent of Edmontonians saying they'd cast a ballot for the NDP and 44 per cent saying they prefer the United Conservative Party.

The UCP, which captured 50 per cent of the vote in Calgary in the provincial 2023 vote, has increased its potential vote share to 52 per cent.

Meanwhile, the poll suggests support for the NDP in the headquarters of Canada's oil industry has dropped to 39 per cent.

Considered the battleground in the 2023 provincial election campaign, New Democrats captured 48 per cent of the vote share in Calgary and 14 seats, some by razor-thin margins.  

The survey indicates the UCP remains more popular with men (58 per cent) compared to women (45 per cent). A third of Alberta male voters (32 per cent) say they'd vote for the NDP.  Alberta women are more likely to cast a ballot for the NDP at 45 per cent. 

Seniors appear almost evenly split between the UCP (46 per cent) and the NDP (44 per cent).  

Younger voters, ages 18 to 24, appear to be more inclined to vote for the UCP (47 per cent) compared to the NDP (39 per cent).

The UCP dominates among voters between the ages of 25 and 64 with 54 per cent, according to the poll, saying they prefer the governing party to the opposition NDP (37 per cent).

"Younger men are more attracted to right-wing parties right now," said Brown. "And views on separatism are really important in determining where people stand. So, young people who like the idea of separatism, they're definitely on the right end of the spectrum. And the fact that there are young Albertans wanting to separate, that's bad news for the NDP."

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