Research finds glaciers far more vulnerable to global warming than earlier estimates

Glaciers world-wide ar far thomas more vulnerable to world-wide warming than scientists antecedently estimated, with potentially catastrophic consequences for billions who depend on glacier-fed water systems, according to new research published in the journal Science.

The dangers from such climate crisis-linked change was evident on Wednesday. A massive rock and ice avalanche from Switzerland’s Birch glacier thundered down a mountainside in Blatten, sending dust plumes skyward and coating the evacuated Alpine village with mud, according to a news report by AP.

The comprehensive study reveals that only 24% of current glacier mass would survive if global temperatures rise by 2.7°C — the warming trajectory anticipated under existing climate policies. However, limiting warming to 1.5°C could preserve 54% of glacier mass, highlighting the critical importance of aggressive climate action.

The findings carry particular significance for the Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH), where glaciers sustain river systems supporting 2 billion people. Under 1.5°C warming, only 40% of the region’s 2020 glacier mass would remain, plummeting to just 25% at 2°C warming.

“Our study makes it painfully clear that every fraction of a degree matters,” said lead author Harry Zekollari from Vrije Universiteit Brussel. “The choices we make today will resonate for centuries, determining how much of our glaciers can be preserved.”

Regional variations within the vast HKH system are stark. The Central and Eastern Himalayas face nearly 63% glacier mass loss at 1.5°C warming, whilst the Western region — encompassing Hindu Kush, Karakorum and Western Himalayas — would lose approximately 17%.

“It is important to note that these projections are based on when the glaciers fully adjust to warmed climate, which can take hundreds of years,” explained James Kirkham, a glaciologist and climate scientist, based on the findings of the study.

While overall findings of the paper are global and largely apply to very large glaciers around Antarctica and Greenland, “the glacier regions most important to human communities are even more sensitive, with several losing nearly all glacier ice already at 2 degree C,” scientists have said.

The European Alps, North American Rockies and Iceland would retain merely 10-15% of their 2020 ice levels under sustained 2°C warming. Scandinavia faces complete glacier loss at 2°C.

Staying within 1.5°C warming offers a dramatically different scenario, preserving at least some glacier ice across all regions. Even Scandinavia would retain glacier ice, whilst the four most sensitive regions would maintain 20-30% of current levels, and the Himalayas and Caucasus would preserve 40-45%.

The research, titled “Glacier preservation doubled by limiting warming to 1.5°C versus 2.7°C” and conducted by 21 scientists from leading institutions including ETH Zurich, University of Innsbruck and University of Bristol, employed eight state-of-the-art glacier evolution models across 80 climate scenarios to simulate long-term mass loss for all glaciers outside the major ice sheets.

“Glaciers are good indicators of climate change because their retreat allows us to see with our own eyes how climate is changing,” said co-lead author Lilian Schuster from the University of Innsbruck. “But the situation for glaciers is actually far worse than visible in the mountains today.”

The study’s release coincided with the first global UN conference on glaciers in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, underscoring growing international concern over accelerating ice loss.

Some regions, including the Central Andes of Peru, Ecuador and Colombia, plus East Africa and Indonesia, appear to maintain higher ice levels — but only because they have already suffered massive losses. Venezuela’s last glacier, Humboldt, lost its glacier status in 2024, whilst Indonesia’s ironically named “Infinity Glacier” is expected to disappear within two years.

European losses continue mounting. Germany lost one of its five remaining glaciers during the 2022 heatwave, whilst Slovenia likely lost its final glacier decades ago.

The crisis has reached Nepal, where the Yala glacier in Langtang was recently declared “dead”— the first Nepalese glacier to receive this designation. Glaciologists and local communities from Nepal, India, China and Bhutan gathered to commemorate its loss, marking it with a memorial plaque bearing words by author Andri Snaer Magnason. Yala becomes the first Asian glacier and third worldwide to receive such commemoration.

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