Military considers permanent bases in Latvia as part of Canada's NATO commitment

Canada’s war machine trading operations require has embarked on a consider virtually how the country’s NATO deployment in Latvia can be realistically sustained into the future, and one of options could involve more permanent basing, says a senior commander.  

Lt.-Gen. Steve Boivin, the commander of the Canadian Joint Operations Command (CJOC), said they are just beginning the analysis and recommendations have not been made to the chief of the defence staff, let alone the federal government.

Prime Minister Mark Carney announced last August an extension of the Canadian mission in Latvia to 2029. 

Canada already has a near-permanent rotational presence in Latvia, with the roughly 2,200 soldiers serving six- to nine-month tours depending on their unit.

"We are approaching it from a military point of view — what makes sense based on the commitment that we've made,” said Boivin, who noted that two of the factors driving the review include the shortage of troops throughout the military and the challenges of rushing reinforcements into place in an emergency.

"We want to make sure that we can sustain this operation. So, yes, we're looking at whether it would make sense to permanently base people going forward."

The last time Canada had a permanent military presence in Europe was following the Second World War and during the Cold War. The Armed Forces maintained two bases in West Germany until 1993.

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At least one other NATO ally is already moving towards establishing a permanent military presence in the Baltic region. 

Germany announced earlier this year that it is establishing the 45th Panzer Brigade, a force of approximately 5,000 troops, as a permanent base in Lithuania. 

The unit is expected to be fully operational in 2027.

Estonian Minister of Foreign Affairs Margus Tsahkna recently testified before a special commission of the U.S. Congress, warning that Russia could reinforce its military presence along the Baltic borders within "two to three years, or less." Based on Moscow's current military posture, he stated that Russia would "return to our Baltic borders with even more troops and military equipment than they had before the full-scale invasion" of Ukraine.

More permanent basing would send a stronger signal of deterrence, wrote Daniel Kochis, of the Hudson Institute, in a piece published on Dec. 15.

"NATO can signal resolve within the alliance by increasing its presence in the Baltics," Kochis said. 

"An expanded allied force presence in the region is not provocative — but a weak posture certainly is."

Canada leads the NATO brigade in Latvia. Germany is the lead nation in Lithuania. The United Kingdom is in charge of the deployment in Estonia.

Since the onset of the deterrence missions, NATO has preferred persistent presence via rotation, rather than Cold War-style bases, but that norm has been questioned since the full invasion of Ukraine in the winter of 2022.

At the end of the Cold War, NATO promised Russia it would not establish permanent bases in Eastern Europe.

Canadian defence expert Steve Saideman said that hasn’t gone out of the window since Ukraine, but pretty close.

"The NATO-Russia Founding Act had some language to that effect, but since the Russians have violated pretty much every other clause of that agreement, and it has been essentially dead since 2014, and very, very dead since 2022, we shouldn't be obligated by an agreement that they haven't respected," Saideman said, referring to the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea.

"So that used to be an obstacle for some NATO countries, like the Germans were very hesitant to have any permanent basing [in the Baltics] because they wanted to keep that act, that agreement in place for the day where it can be relevant again, but that day is gone."

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Saideman said a more permanent basing system would make it easier on troops and perhaps less expensive because you’d save the expense of moving people around every six months or so.

It also makes sense, he said, because the rotational system — with one contingent of troops training for deployment, one on deployment, and a third resting from deployment — means the Canadian Army can do little else other than the Latvia mission.

Canada's last major permanent troop presence in Europe ended in 1993 with the closure of its bases in Lahr and Baden-Soellingen, Germany.

At its peak, the contingent involved over 6,700 military personnel and their dependents. The bases included housing, schools, hospitals, shopping centres and recreational facilities.

Establishing such a presence in Latvia would, naturally, require the consent of the government in that country. Several government ministers, including Latvia’s defence minister, have argued publicly in 2025 for a greater NATO presence in the region and more stockpiling of equipment. 

Converting to a more permanent presence would be a major undertaking and would likely require revisions of the deployment’s legal framework, expanding the status of force agreement with the Baltic nation. 

NATO would also likely have to weigh in on the decision.

It would also be a major political decision in Canada and likely have to be put before Parliament for a non-binding vote, the way other troop deployments have been done.  

Senior reporter, defence and security

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