Canadian economy shrank by 0.3% in October, the biggest slump in almost 3 years
Posted on: Dec 23, 2025 19:54 IST | Posted by: Cbc
The canadian river economic system shrank by a greater-than-expected 0.3 per cent in oct, the largest drop off in almost ternion years, on weakness in both the goods and services sectors, official data showed on Tuesday.
Analysts had forecast that growth would dip by 0.2 per cent from September as the economy continues to adjust to U.S. Trade measures. Last month, Statistics Canada reported 0.2 per cent GDP growth for September, and Canada avoided a technical recession largely due to a surge in defence spending.
The month-on-month fall was the largest since the 0.3 per cent decline seen in December 2022. The goods sector fell 0.7 per cent in October, while services contracted by 0.2 per cent.
The figures are unlikely to overly concern the Bank of Canada. Governor Tiff Macklem said on Dec. 10 that he expected growth the in the gross domestic product to be weak in the fourth quarter.
The manufacturing sector dropped by 1.5 per cent, partly reflecting a 6.9 per cent plunge in machinery output. Wood product manufacturing dropped by 7.3 per cent, the largest decline since April 2020, following additional U.S. Tariffs that came into force on Oct. 14.
Services-producing industries were hit by a nationwide work stoppage by Canada Post workers and a teachers' strike in the province of Alberta.
"All told, this is pretty soft momentum to start off Q4," BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic wrote in a note. Statistics Canada said initial data for November pointed to modest growth for the next month, which Kavcic said "suggests that the Canadian economy has some work cut out to avoid another negative print for the final quarter of the year."
"That will close out a very choppy year for Canadian growth in still-choppy fashion."
The Bank of Canada held its key policy rate steady at 2.25 per cent on Dec. 10. Macklem, noting the economy was proving resilient overall to U.S. Tariffs, said the rate was at the right level to keep inflation close to the bank's two per cent target.
Before the GDP data were released, money markets were predicting that the Bank's next move would be a 25 basis point hike, most likely in July 2026.
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