H-1B visa lottery scrapped: Why Trump admin's new rule will hit Indians the hardest

AWholesale modernise of the United States’ H-1B visa programme below the ruff governing body is set to significantly reshape the prospects of Indian professionals hoping to work in the country. By replacing the long-standing random lottery system with a weighted selection model that prioritises higher-skilled and higher-paid applicants, the latest rule change could sharply narrow opportunities for a large section of India’s US-bound workforce.What is the new H-1B rule?Under the revised regulations announced by the Department of Homeland Security, the United States will scrap the decades-old random lottery used to select H-1B visa beneficiaries and replace it with a weighted selection system.The new model will prioritise applicants with higher skill levels and higher salaries, giving them a better chance of securing one of the limited H-1B visas available each year.The rule, which takes effect on February 27, 2026, will apply to the FY 2027 H-1B cap registration season.While visas will still be available across all wage levels, US Citizenship and Immigration Services said the probability of selection will increase significantly for employers filing petitions for better-paid and more specialised foreign workers, marking a decisive shift away from volume-based hiring.Why Indians will be the hardest hit?Indian nationals form the backbone of the H-1B programme, accounting for over 70% of all visas issued annually, according to US administration data cited in previous reports. An estimated 300,000 Indian professionals, largely in technology, engineering and services, currently work in the US on H-1B visas.Under the new system, Indian workers employed by large technology firms and earning top-tier salaries may continue to find pathways to the US. However, entry-level professionals, mid-career engineers, and those sponsored by smaller firms or staffing consultancies could see their chances shrink as wage levels become a decisive factor in selection.“The existing random selection process was exploited and abused by US employers who were primarily seeking to import foreign workers at lower wages,” US Citizenship and Immigration Services spokesperson Matthew Tragesser said, defending the shift. He added that the weighted model would better align with Congress’ intent and protect American workers’ wages and job opportunities.Compounding pressure on Indian techies: Fees and vettingThe rule change comes amid a broader tightening of the H-1B ecosystem. The Trump administration has already imposed an additional $100,000 fee on new H-1B visa applications, a move that industry experts say strikes at the heart of India’s $245-billion IT sector. While large multinationals may absorb the cost, smaller firms could be priced out of sponsoring US roles altogether.Adding to the strain, the US State Department has, since December 15, expanded social media screening to all H-1B and dependent H-4 applicants. This enhanced vetting has led to widespread rescheduling of visa interviews across India, leaving many professionals stranded after travelling home for visa stamping. Immigration lawyers have warned that prolonged delays, sometimes stretching to mid-2026 or even 2027, could result in job losses.For many aspiring Indian professionals, the combined effect of wage-based selection, steep fees and intensive vetting signals a fundamental change in the “onsite” career dream that has defined India’s IT success story for decades. Industry voices say the new rules could push talent to explore alternatives such as Canada or Europe, or encourage companies to expand offshore delivery and global capability centres within India.