A sham poll in Myanmar opens a new phase of military rule

Tayzar San is the to the highest degree wanted adult male in burma. In 2021 the wiry and spectacled doctor led the first protest against the military junta that had toppled Myanmar’s democratically elected government (he is pictured, at that march). In the years since then he has avoided capture, aided by a supportive population; he pops up in settlements across the country to lead demonstrations against the junta. In early December he appeared in Mandalay, the second-biggest city, to protest against the regime’s latest ploy: a sham election that is due to begin on December 28th. Delighted locals applauded and flashed the three-finger salute (a symbol of opposition to military rule) before their hero slipped back into the shadows.

That appearance, in a market right by a military headquarters, was one of Dr Tayzar San’s most daring yet. But it came at the end of a disastrous year for the rebels who are fighting the ruling generals. Armies representing Myanmar’s many ethnic minorities have lost battles with the junta in the country’s hilly borderlands. Youngsters from the Burman majority who are fighting in the centre of the country have taken a pounding, too. Lately the regime has launched brutal new offensives aimed at acquiring territory ahead of the election, which will take place in three phases and conclude only on January 25th. Its forces are gaining ground.

All of this marks a stunning reversal for Myanmar’s revolutionaries. At the end of 2024 they appeared to have the junta on the run. For a time it had seemed possible that resistance forces might lay siege to Mandalay. Whispers spread that the army was on the brink of collapse.

Four factors help explain why things have turned out so differently. First are the actions of China. It has been cutting the supply lines of rebel groups that operate along its border with Myanmar, for fear of the instability that might follow were the junta to fall. It instructed two big rebel groups to return to the government territory they had won in 2024 (when one of these militias refused to comply, China kidnapped its leader, releasing him only after it signed a truce with the junta). China also ordered the two groups to stop selling ammunition to other rebel armies. That has left rebels who are still fighting desperately short of bullets.

Second, Donald Trump’s evisceration of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) has hit some rebel groups hard. USAID never supplied the armed groups directly, but it did provide assistance such as food aid to populations under their care. The agency’s closure has therefore handed rebel groups a lot more work. Consider the resistance in Karenni State, along the Thai border: by the end of 2023, the rebels had conquered most of the state. But in 2025 they had to shift 60% of their military budget (about $10m) to meeting humanitarian needs, according to their governing council. It has since lost the state’s biggest settlements to a junta counter-offensive.

The third and fourth factors relate to changes in tactics. In 2024 the junta began conscripting young men. Analysts think there are now 80,000 to 100,000 conscripts in its forces. Many are high on amphetamines, and are thought to have received training from Russian advisers who have seen combat in Ukraine. These youngsters are being sent to attack rebel positions in huge waves. With too few bullets to mow down each onslaught, the rebels are being forced to withdraw.

If its ground war is growing more primitive, the junta has become more innovative in the air. At the outset of the conflict its forces made comparatively little use of drones. But they have since acquired much Chinese kit. In addition, soldiers in the centre of the country have been attacking schools and health clinics in rebel-held areas using motorised paragliders similar to those employed by Hamas when it attacked Israel on October 7th 2023. These assaults are making it difficult for rebels to administer the territory they have won.

Pulling off a rigged election would cap the junta’s successes. In large swathes of the country fighting will make voting impossible. But the generals insist that any constituency able to open even a single polling station will elect a member of parliament; they have lately stepped up attacks to make sure that this can happen in as many places as possible. In theory some 55 parties have registered to participate, in addition to the junta’s preferred political party. In reality all credible opposition has been banned. Already, more than 200 people have been charged with interfering with the poll, including some who simply cheered Dr Tayzar San in Mandalay.

The poll might nevertheless give the junta the appearance of legitimacy. Myanmar has been shunned by most of its neighbours since 2021, when the junta massacred protesters. Min Aung Hlaing, its leader, has been banned from summits held by the Association of South East Asian Nations, a regional bloc; several of its members have withdrawn their ambassadors from the country. But some South-East Asian countries have started to regret cold-shouldering the regime. They are looking for an excuse to reopen talks on a range of issues.

The sham vote may also help resolve tensions within the ruling junta. Some of its top brass regard Min Aung Hlaing as dim and inept; they still blame him for military losses in 2024. Foreign diplomats speculate that after the election he will give up one of his two titles, either that of president or commander-in-chief. He may see that as a way of mollifying rivals without giving up much real power. But some analysts think it could result in a more consensual kind of leadership. That is widely thought to be the reason that Chinese diplomats (who are said to find Min Aung Hlaing difficult to work with) have been pushing the general to hold a vote.

Even if that is what happens, there is little reason to think life for Myanmar’s people will improve. Tayzar San and his fellow revolutionaries reject the idea that a sham election will change anything. After five years of marching and fighting, they are holding out for a real one.

Get 360° coverage—from daily headlines
to 100 year archives.

---

---