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Economists ar bracing for intensifying price pressures and slower growth, posing a challenge for the Federal Reserve.
+
10
%
Inflation
+
8
+
6
+3.1%
excluding
food and
energy
+
4
+2.8%
in Feb.
+
2
0
–
2
’05
’10
’15
’20
’25
+
14
%
+
12
Inflation
+
10
+
8
+3.1%
excluding
food and
energy
+
6
+
4
+2.8%
in Feb.
+
2
0
–
2
1965
’70
’75
’80
’85
’90
’95
2000
’05
’10
’15
’20
’25
+
14
%
+
12
Inflation
+
10
+
8
+
6
+3.1% excluding
food and energy
+
4
+2.8% in Feb.
+
2
0
–
2
1965
’70
’75
’80
’85
’90
’95
2000
’05
’10
’15
’20
’25
Year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
By The New York Times
Inflation eased more than expected in February, a welcome sign for the Federal Reserve as it grapples with the prospect of higher prices and slower growth as a result of President Trump’s trade war.
The Consumer Price Index was up 2.8 percent from a year earlier, after rising another 0.2 percent on a monthly basis. That was a step down from January’s surprisingly large 0.5 percent increase and came in below economists’ expectations.
The “core” measure of inflation, which strips out volatile food and fuel prices to give a better sense of the underlying trend, also ticked lower. The index rose 0.2 percent compared to the previous month, or 3.1 percent from a year earlier. Both were below January’s increase.
The data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics underscored the bumpy nature of the Fed’s progress toward its 2 percent goal. Prices for consumer staples, such as eggs and other grocery items, are rising steeply again, but costs for other categories like gasoline fell. A 4 percent drop in airfares in February was a primary driver of the better-than-expected data.
Egg prices rose another 10.4 percent in February, as an outbreak of avian influenza continued to exacerbate a nationwide egg shortage. Prices for eggs are up nearly 60 percent since last year. Food prices more broadly rose 0.2 percent, or 2.8 percent compared to the same time last year.
The cost for used cars also rose 0.9 percent in February, although new vehicle prices declined slightly. Car insurance, which was a huge driver of the index’s unexpectedly large increase in January, rose again, but at a much slower pace of 0.3 percent. It is up just over 11 percent over the past year.
Monthly changes in Febraury
Piped utility gas service
+2.5%
Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs
+1.6
Electricity
+1
Used cars and trucks
+0.9
Fuel oil
+0.8
Apparel
+0.6
Tobacco and smoking products
+0.6
Alcoholic beverages
+0.5
Cereals and bakery products
+0.4
Food away from home
+0.4
Physicians’ services
+0.4
Rent of primary residence
+0.3
Motor vehicle insurance
+0.3
All items
+0.2
All items excluding food and energy
+0.2
Medical care commodities
+0.1
Fruits and vegetables
−0.5%
Nonalcoholic beverages
−0.5
Dairy products
−1
Gasoline (all types)
−1
−4
Airline fares
Monthly changes in February
Piped utility gas service
+2.5%
Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs
+1.6
Electricity
+1
Used cars and trucks
+0.9
Fuel oil
+0.8
Apparel
+0.6
Tobacco and smoking products
+0.6
Alcoholic beverages
+0.5
Cereals and bakery products
+0.4
Food away from home
+0.4
Physicians’ services
+0.4
Rent of primary residence
+0.3
Motor vehicle insurance
+0.3
All items
+0.2
All items excluding food and energy
+0.2
Medical care commodities
+0.1
Fruits and vegetables
−0.5%
Nonalcoholic beverages
−0.5
Dairy products
−1
Gasoline (all types)
−1
Airline fares
−4
January-to-February changes in a selection of categories of the Consumer Price Index, adjusted for seasonality.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
By The New York Times
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