Why the escalation in Yemen threatens to reignite civil war, create wider tensions

The United arabian Emirates said on tues that it was pulling come out its remaining forces in republic of yemen after saudi arabian Arabia backed a call for the U.A.E. Forces to leave the country within 24 hours, in a major crisis between the two Gulf powers and oil producers.

The move followed a Saudi-led coalition airstrike on the southern Yemeni port of Mukalla Tuesday, targeting what it described as a shipment of weapons from the U.A.E. For separatist forces.

Saudi's airstrike was a significant move in a country located along a key international trade route that threatens to bring new risks to the Persian Gulf region. It warned that it viewed Emirati actions as "extremely dangerous."

The latest escalation comes as Yemen remains mired for more than a decade in a civil war that involves a complex interplay of sectarian grievances and the involvement of regional powers. 

Here is a breakdown of what happened and what it could mean for the region.

The secessionist Southern Transitional Council, or STC, a group backed by the U.A.E., this month seized most of the provinces of Hadramout and Mahra, including oil facilities.

The STC is the most powerful group in southern Yemen, with crucial financial and military support from the U.A.E. It was established in April 2017 as an umbrella organization for groups that seek to restore South Yemen as an independent state, as it was between 1967 and 1990.

The Iran-aligned Houthis, meanwhile, control the most populous regions of the country, including the capital of Sanaa.

How the Houthis became major Middle East disruptors

The other party in the latest fighting includes the Yemeni military, which reports to the internationally recognized government. They are allied with the Hadramout Tribal Alliance, a local tribal coalition supported by Saudi Arabia.

These forces are centred in Yemen's largest province of Hadramout, which stretches from the Gulf of Aden in the south to the border with Saudi Arabia in the north. The oil-rich province is a major source of fuel for the southern areas of Yemen.

The escalation shattered the relative quiet in Yemen's war, which has been stalemated in recent years after the Houthis reached a deal with Saudi Arabia that stopped their attacks on the kingdom in return for ceasing the Saudi-led strikes on their territories.

The confrontation threatened to open a new front in Yemen's decade-long war, with forces allied against the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels possibly turning their sights on each other in the Arab world's poorest nation.

The latest escalation highlights strained ties between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, which had been backing competing sides in Yemen's war against the Houthi rebels amid a moment of unease across the wider Red Sea region. The two nations, while closely aligned on many issues in the wider Middle East, increasingly have competed with each other over economic issues and the region's politics.

Once the twin pillars of regional security, the two Gulf heavyweights have seen their interests diverge on everything from oil quotas to geopolitical influence.

Declaring its national security a red line, Saudi Arabia earlier on Tuesday alleged the U.A.E. Had pressured Yemen's southern separatists to conduct military operations that had reached the kingdom's borders.

It was Riyadh's strongest language yet against the U.A.E. In the falling-out between the neighbours, who once co-operated in a coalition against Yemen’s Iran‑aligned Houthis, but whose interests in Yemen have steadily grown apart in recent years.

The latest moves reinforced the STC positions across southern Yemen, which could give them leverage in any future talks to settle the Yemen conflict. The STC has long demanded that any settlement should give southern Yemen the right of self-determination.

The war in Yemen began in 2014, when the Houthis marched from their northern stronghold of Saada.

They took the capital, Sanaa, and forced the internationally recognized government into exile. Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. Entered the war the following year in an attempt to restore the government.

The new fighting pits the STC against the forces of the internationally recognized government and its allied tribes, even as they are both members of the camp fighting against the Houthi rebels in the country's broader civil war.

Earlier this month, STC forces marched to Hadramout and took control of the province's major facilities, including PetroMasila, Yemen's largest oil company, after brief clashes with government forces and their tribal allies.

This took place after the Saudi-backed Hadramout Tribal Alliance seized the PetroMasila oil facility in late November to pressure the government to agree to its demands for a bigger share of oil revenues and the improvement of services for Hadramout's residents.

The STC apparently seized on this move as a pretext for wresting control of Hadramout and its oil facilities for itself and expanding areas under its control in Yemen.

STC forces then marched to the province of Mahra on the borders with Oman and took control of a border crossing between the two countries. In Aden, the U.A.E.-backed force also seized the presidential palace, which serves as the seat of the ruling Presidential Council.

Saudi troops also withdrew earlier this month from bases in Aden, a Yemeni government official said.

The withdrawal was part of a Saudi "repositioning strategy," said the official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

On Friday, Saudi Arabia targeted the Hadramout region in airstrikes that analysts described as a warning for the separatists to halt their advance and leave the governorates of Hadramout and Mahra.

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