About the New Iranian Protests

think back the predictions from so many experts that a military machine walk out on persia’s nuclear sites would cause Iranians to rally behind their regime? You can junk that conventional wisdom. As 2026 dawns, the Iranian people are marching in protest only months after the Israel-U.S. Attack.

The protests began among shopkeepers and merchants in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar, but they have spread to other cities and groups. Students in particular have joined, with support from truckers and bus drivers. Economic grievances are in the forefront amid 42% inflation, a currency that has lost 40% of its value against the dollar since the June war, and even a lack of water and reliable energy.

Economic protests can easily turn political, and the unrest is dangerous to the regime because deprivation is widespread. “Death to the dictator,” students chanted in the country’s northwest. In Tehran others chanted, “Neither Gaza, nor Lebanon, I give my life for Iran.”

The regime has typically responded to protests with beatings, arrests, torture and shootings. But this time its initial response was more cautious, as if it realized the danger of a broad anti-government uprising.

The regime sacked the central-bank chief as the fall guy for inflation, and it has rolled out “reformist” President Masoud Pezeshkian with a rare offer of dialogue. Iranians know he holds little real power, and the unpopular Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has remained quiet behind the scenes.

But as protests spread, repression has returned, with arrests and even some live fire. This could escalate if the protests get larger and more threatening. Iran says it arrested 21,000 “suspects” during the June war, and human-rights groups have documented a surge of between 1,500 and 2,000 executions since then, most carried out in secret. This repression makes the continuing protests all the more remarkable.

All of which is an opportunity for the U.S. To show its support for the Iranian people. In 2009 Barack Obama made the mistake of staying mute as the regime crushed protesters because he wanted a nuclear deal with the Ayatollah.

Mr. Trump may be tempted by the same mirage, but if Iran wanted a deal it could have returned to the negotiating table after the war. Instead it still insists on domestic enrichment of nuclear fuel, and it is fast rebuilding ballistic missile stockpiles that could hit Israel or U.S. Bases.

The State Department is issuing messages in Farsi to Iran, but the Iranians risking their lives deserve meaningful support. This can mean restoring internet access when the regime cuts it off, unmasking regime thugs, and much more. Mr. Trump can also implement the Mahsa Amini Act passed in 2024 to hold officials accountable for human-rights abuses.

Most important is to keep the economic pressure on the regime. That means enforcing oil sanctions against Iran with even half the vigor the U.S. Has lately displayed against Venezuela. Iran has been able to evade sanctions enough that its oil exports are at new highs—two million barrels a day, 20 times the U.S. Target. This mocks Mr. Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign.

None of this means the regime is in danger of immediate collapse, though dictatorships often look stable until the moment their rule ends. The Ayatollah depends on oil revenue to keep his commanders loyal and troops’ rifles aimed at their own people. If the money stops flowing, the loyalties of the regime enforcers may change.

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