How US action in Venezuela could impact oil prices, India

rough oil color prices ar in focalize as the United States “captured” chairperson Nicolas Maduro in a regime-change military operation in Venezuela, raising major concerns also about potential disruptions to global supply.

Venezuela holds some of the largest proven crude reserves globally, but international oil prices remain subdued for now as the country’s exports have stayed limited due to long-standing US sanctions over the years.

US President Donald Trump said on Saturday that the US would be “very strongly involved” in Venezuela’s oil industry following the operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Speaking to Fox News, Trump said American oil companies would play a major role, describing them as the biggest and greatest in the world.

Oil prices have edged lower and are hovering around the $60-a-barrel mark, even as uncertainty grows around developments in one of the world’s most oil-rich nations.

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According to a Reuters report, Venezuela’s state-run energy firm PDVSA said its oil production and refining operations were functioning normally on Saturday, and that its key facilities had not suffered damage from US attacks.

The report added that the port of La Guaira, near the capital Caracas, sustained severe damage, though it is not used for oil operations.

In December, Trump announced a blockade on oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela, and the US subsequently seized two cargoes of Venezuelan crude. These measures led many vessel owners to divert away from Venezuelan waters, sharply increasing PDVSA’s inventories of crude and fuel, Reuters reported. As a result, PDVSA was forced to slow deliveries at ports and store oil on tankers to avoid cutting output or refining operations.

Venezuela’s oil production had collapsed to historic lows in 2020, with annual output falling to 192 million barrels, according to data from the International Energy Agency and Trading Economics.

Production recovered to around 5.5 lakh to 6.3 lakh barrels per day in 2021.

In 2022 and 2023, output gradually rose to 217 million barrels and 264 million barrels, respectively, aided by stabilisation through Iranian diluent swaps and the easing of sanctions under US General License 44.

From an Indian perspective, the latest political developments in Venezuela are significant.

China remains the largest buyer of Venezuelan oil. India’s trade ties with Venezuela earlier remained focused on oil imports though these had dropped to negligible levels in 2021 and 2022 due to US sanctions.

The oil trade rebounded in 2023–24, with India’s petroleum imports from Venezuela rising to nearly $1 billion.

In December 2023, India briefly emerged as the top buyer of Venezuelan crude, according to a report by The Financial Express.

Data from the Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics and the UN COMTRADE database shows India’s average oil imports from Venezuela rose to around 63,000–100,000 barrels per day in 2024, marking a nearly 500 per cent increase from the previous year.

According to the IEA, India remained the third-largest buyer of Venezuelan oil after China and the US for most of 2025, although imports began to decline in the latter part of the year amid renewed geopolitical tensions and tighter US sanctions.

The Indian government was yet to react to the developments in Venezuela, as of 8:45 pm IST, Saturday.

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