Sitaare Zameen Par may open at just half of Laal Singh Chaddha at the box office: Is Aamir Khan staring at another flop?

AAmir Khan is reverting to the vainglorious test with Sitaare Zameen Par this weekend. The RS Prasanna shoot is the actor's number one release in three years, and naturally, expectations are high in terms of both the content and box office collections. But the anticipation does not seem to be translating to box office collections, at least judging by early trends. (Also read: ₹1 crore; Aamir Khan film still trailing Kesari Chapter 2, Jaat, Sikandar">Sitaare Zameen Par advance booking crawls past ₹1 crore; Aamir Khan film still trailing Kesari Chapter 2, Jaat, Sikandar)For over a decade, Aamir reigned supreme at the Bollywood box office, but he is yet to regain his Midas touch after the failures of Thugs of Hindostan and Laal Singh Chaddha. The actor would hope that Sitaare Zameen Par is the film that will once again earn him the love of the masses.Sitaare Zameen Par box office predictionWhile some reports have claimed that Sitaare Zameen Par can register an opening of around ₹10-11 crore, our sources differ. A trade insider shares that the buzz is that the film may struggle to cross ₹5-6 crore net on its first day in India. If this is true, it would mean that Sitaare Zameen Par would earn just half of what Aamir's previous film—Laal Singh Chaddha—did when it was released three years ago. Laal Singh Chaddha, which eventually turned out to be a box office disappointment, opened at a rather low ₹11.70 crore in India in August 2022.The advance booking numbers do not paint a pretty picture, so far. By 9 am on Thursday, just 24 hours before release, the advance booking for the opening day of Sitaare Zameen Par has barely crossed ₹1 crore. It is way behind the ₹5.65 crore mark of Laal Singh Chaddha and even further back from the ₹10.05 crore collected by Housefull 5, the most recent Bollywood hit.Can Sitaare Zameen Par be a hit?Sitaare Zameen Par has a reported budget of ₹80 crore. For the film to be a hit, trade sources say the film must do a net collection of ₹100 crore in India. That will be an uphill battle after a slow start. A ₹5-6-crore opening may not be ideal for an Aamir Khan film, given that the film hopes to do great numbers. Even Sunny Deol's Jaat and Rajkummar Rao's Bhool Chuk Maaf had better opening day numbers than that. And neither of those films touched ₹100 crore domestically.However, some are still hopeful, saying the film may do well if the word of mouth is positive. It is true that most of Aamir's films have grown via word of mouth. For instance, Dangal's second Sunday was higher than its opening day. But those films had a strong base. Dangal earned ₹32 crore on its second Sunday, but its opening was still a healthy ₹29 crore.What has gone wrongFor a long time, Aamir Khan was known for his marketing skills. He was adept at selling his films in the perfect manner. That enabled him to break box office records even with unconventional, non-massy films like 3 Idiots, PK, and Dangal. But he has been unable to replicate this with Laal Singh Chaddha, and now Sitaare Zameen Par. Film trade analyst Atul Mohan shares a possible reason: "Aamir Khan, who is known as a marketing genius, seems to have been let down by his marketing and PR team this time. He is doing so many interviews, but the message about his film does not come across. I hope the film does well, because I want films to do well at the box office, but so far, the buzz is low."Directed by RS Prasanna, Sitaare Zameen Par stars Aamir as a basketball coach leading a team of special needs children. The film also stars Genelia D'Souza and marks the debuts of 10 special needs actors.