As the U.S. targets sanctioned Venezuelan oil, more of Russia's growing shadow fleet could be swept up, too

As the new named rough tank driver Marinera made its path crossways the North Atlantic toward Russia, it was tracked by the U.S. Coast Guard, which had been pursuing it for more than two weeks as part of its blockade on Venezuelan oil. 

During that time, the ship had changed course, changed names and changed flags, shipping databases show. The crew even reportedly hastily painted a Russian flag on the rusty hull. 

But that didn’t stop the U.S. From taking control of the ship, with the help of the U.K., on Wednesday, as it was off the south coast of Iceland. U.S. Officials said it was seized as part of Washington's plan to target vessels that it deems a threat to the security and stability of the "Western hemisphere."

Russia, which had reportedly deployed a submarine and other military vessels to the area, called it an illegal act, with one lawmaker saying it amounted to piracy. 

Maritime intelligence experts with the firm Windward can't recall another instance of a NATO country apprehending a Russian ship in international waters, but they expect more tankers to come under Washington's control as it ramps up pressure on Venezuela, adding that it is possible more Russian ships could be entangled in the campaign. 

"U.S. Regulators are watching. More seizures are likely," said Michelle Wiese Bockmann, a maritime intelligence analyst at Windward, a global firm headquartered in London which surveys and tracks maritime activity.

"The U.S. Has shown that it is possible to interdict and to seize and to deal with tankers if they are not following international rules based order."

What is unclear however, is Russia's potential response to the seizure, and more broadly, how it will affect the global shadow fleet, a group of vessels with opaque ownership structures that use deceptive shipping practices to circumvent sanctions. 

While the size of the shadow fleet grew rapidly after Russia was sanctioned by Western countries over its invasion of Ukraine, shadow vessels have been used by Iran and North Korea for years. 

U.S. Seizes 2 oil tankers in international waters

Since December, the U.S. Has taken control of four Venezuelan-linked tankers. Two were seized off the coast of the country in December, and two more on Wednesday. 

A few hours before the Marinera was seized, the U.S. Southern Command took control of what it called a "stateless, sanctioned, dark fleet" tanker that was operating in international waters in the Caribbean Sea. 

The M/T Sophia was carrying 1.8 million barrels of oil, which analysts say was likely destined for China.

According to Bockmannm, the ship, a frequent caller at Venezuelan ports, had a track record of deceptive practices and would often spoof or obscure its location.

She says the Marinera operated in a similar fashion and had a protracted history of trading with Iran and Venezuela since 2021. It's believed the ship was on its way to the Russian port of Murmansk when it was intercepted. 

Bockmann said the ship had been fraudulently flagged to Guyana, a country which does not have an international shipping registry. The ship was considered stateless by international maritime authorities before it was hastily re-flagged to Russia.

Bockmann says over the past month, 21 dark fleet tankers, all falsely flagged, have also made the same switch to Russia.

"This nascent trend is something that has accelerated very rapidly since the first tanker was intercepted on Dec. 10," said Bockmann.

Ships are deemed by authorities to be "falsely flagged" if they purport to be flagged to a country where they are not legally registered, if they carry a terminated registration, or if the ship keeps rapidly switching flags in a way to avoid oversight.

If this is the case, they are considered stateless, which allows authorities to board them in international waters under the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea.

Bockmann believes the risk of being considered stateless, and vulnerable to seizure, is one of the reasons that around two dozen ships have re-flagged as Russian over the past month.

On Wednesday, the Russian transport ministry said it granted the Marinera "temporary permission" to sail under the Russian flag on Dec. 24. Russian officials called for the U.S. To ensure the humane and decent treatment of all crew members, and ensure their swift return home. 

The Marinera was subject to a U.S. Federal warrant for transporting sanctioned Iranian oil and in a briefing with reporters, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that the crew is subject to prosecution and could be brought back to the United States for such prosecution if necessary. 

Russia's shadow tankers have been subject to numerous rounds of Western sanctions, but continue to operate in a murky network, transporting Russian oil to its biggest customers, India and China. 

A number of NATO countries bordering the Baltic Sea have stepped up maritime patrols, after a series of cables were cut sparking fears of sabotage. 

Ami Daniel, the CEO and co-founder of Windward, wonders if the European Union will consider taking a more aggressive approach to the shadow tankers, given Washington's success at seizing the ships. 

Conversely, he wonders if Washington's act of seizing a foreign-flagged ship could inspire other nations to take the same action.

"Will we see Russia apprehending American flagged vessels or European flagged vessels? Will we see China doing the same?"

"I think what we should ask is, what does this mean for the counter-actions?"

Foreign Correspondent

---

---