Monthly social security checks could be cut by this year if Congress doesn't act

The Social Security Administration’s (SSA) trust fund is slated to run out a year earlier than previous predictions as per 2025’s Trustee Report Summary released on Wednesday (June 18). This could put about 70 million current beneficiaries of the system at risk as the demographic in the US starts shifting from a younger tax-paying population to an older benefit-ridden one.

Although numbers can alter from year to year based on fluctuations in the economy and regulations in the number of beneficiaries, one thing is clear: the SSA’s funds will deplete sooner rather than later and leave millions in the lurch. The root of the issue lies in the fact that the number of dependents is rapidly increasing and is projected to overshadow those contributing to the system.

As the program’s data suggests, the number of people claiming benefits jumped 17% to 1.8 million in May 2025 and is already on the fast track to enlisting 4 million additional beneficiaries this year. In addition, the recent implementation of the Social Security Fairness Act has substantially increased the pool size and quantum of benefits per individual. Dependents of and those receiving public pensions are now eligible to receive full benefits from the program. This puts additional constraints on an already overburdened system.

The report implies that funds are now expected to run out by 2034, a year earlier than what was predicted earlier. “If the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund and the Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund projections were combined, the resulting projected fund (designated OASDI) would be able to pay 100 percent of total scheduled benefits until 2034, one year earlier than reported last year. At that time, the projected fund’s reserves would become depleted, and continuing total fund income would be sufficient to pay 81 percent of scheduled benefits,” the report claims.

The only viable solution to this situation is to either reduce the benefits/beneficiaries or increase the amount of revenue generated. Poll after poll declares that the public is increasingly in favor of the latter option over the former, since they oppose the principle of depriving those in need of crucial funds.

“To ensure we serve the public and deliver high-quality service to the 185 million people who work and pay payroll taxes for Social Security and the 70 million beneficiaries who will receive benefits during 2025, the financial status of the trust funds remains a top priority for the Trump Administration,” said Commissioner of Social Security Frank Bisignano in a statement published by the US Department of the Treasury.

One popular approach suggested by multiple advocacy groups is to raise the cap for taxable income from the current threshold of $176,100. This “tax the rich” has garnered favor among those who believe the wealthy should be responsible for bankrolling the SSA’s depleting funds. The idea of raising the full retirement age to 70 years instead of the current 67 has failed to gain much support amid fears that the same may deprive an older population of much-needed support. Amid recent job cuts and multiple other changes at the SSA, stability of income after retirement has become all the more crucial.

As Bisignano said, “Congress, along with the Social Security Administration and others committed to eliminating waste, fraud, and abuse, must work together to protect and strengthen the trust funds for the millions of Americans who rely on it – now and in the future – for a secure retirement or in the event of a disability.”

By Stuti Gupta

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