Legault's resignation triggers shakeup. What can we expect from the Parti Québécois? 

After François Legault’s surrender, the governing fusion Avenir Québec and the oppositeness Liberals ar both trenchant for new leaders just months before the next provincial election.

The Parti Québécois, which has led opinion polls for much of the past two years, is well positioned as it prepares for the vote scheduled for next fall.

PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has called a news conference for 9:30 a.m. Friday to comment on Legault’s resignation.

In a social media post Wednesday, St-Pierre Plamondon wrote that “despite our profound disagreements on the reasons behind our current collective difficulties and on the future of Quebec, François Legault has always been sincere in his desire to improve the fate of the Quebec nation.”

St-Pierre Plamondon has pledged to hold a referendum in a first mandate if the PQ wins the Oct. 5 election.

Legault announced Wednesday he would step down “for the good of the party, and primarily for the good of Quebec,” following months of plunging poll numbers and several high-profile cabinet departures.

His right-of-centre party, which won two consecutive majority governments, advanced a nationalist agenda that set aside the decades-old debate over Quebec independence.

In a year-end interview last month, in which he insisted he would stay on for the next election, Legault said he didn't think the PQ's lead in the polls would last.

"People will understand that Paul St-Pierre Plamondon is synonymous with a referendum and we don't want that," he told Radio-Canada.

He said a PQ election victory would lead to four years of anticipation for a referendum, which would create the type of uncertainty that would damage the province's economy

"Quebec's economy would suffer for four years and ultimately, we would get a 'no,'" said Legault.

Who could the CAQ’s next leader and Quebec’s next premier be?

But just a month later, Legault's party faces a challenge it has never encountered: a leadership race. Since founding the party in 2011, he has been its undisputed leader and driving force.

The Quebec Liberals are also in the midst of a leadership contest following the resignation of Pablo Rodriguez.

Political analysts say the year ahead is difficult to predict, especially until the new party leaders are chosen. Québec Solidaire and the Conservative Party of Quebec will also attempt to carve out space in a crowded political field.

“The fall campaign that we’re expecting has completely changed. I’m not sure we know what to expect,” said Philippe Fournier, editor-in-chief of 338Canada.com.

“It’s going to be a tumultuous year in Quebec politics.”

Even before the latest upheaval, the possibility of another sovereignty vote was on the radar of Prime Minister Mark Carney.

Last month, Radio-Canada reported that officials in Carney's government had recently held discussions to determine how Ottawa should respond to the PQ's rhetoric in Quebec City.

Journalist

Benjamin Shingler is a reporter based in Montreal covering social issues and Quebec politics. He previously worked at The Canadian Press and the New Brunswick Telegraph-Journal, and is an alumnus of the Oxford Climate Journalism Network. He can be reached at benjamin.shingler@cbc.ca.

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