How do BMC numbers stack up? Math explained as Mumbai mayor suspense grows, Shinde Sena guards corporators

THe BMC results may feature crowned the BJP the largest company, but the existent repugn is simply beginning. With the mayoral vote ahead and margins slim, ally Shiv Sena is guarding its corporators in a Bandra hotel amid fears of last-minute churn.In the 227-member BMC, the elections are held every five years to elect corporators, who represent their respective wards in the civic house. To form a majority and elect the mayor of Mumbai, a party or alliance needs at least 114 seats.While the BJP and the Eknath Shinde–led Shiv Sena together cross that threshold, the margin is slim enough to keep nerves frayed.While the BJP has won 89 seats, its ally Shinde-led Shiv Sena has secured 29. Together, the ruling alliance’s tally stands at 118 – just four seats above the halfway mark. With margins this narrow, even a small shift could complicate control of the civic house.Also Read | ‘If Sena wasn't divided’, ‘if some members switch’, and what math says: Decoding the ‘ifs’ in BMC, Maharashtra resultsIt is this thin cushion that has prompted swift action from Maharashtra deputy chief minister Eknath Shinde. The Shiv Sena has shifted its newly elected corporators to a hotel in Bandra, according to an earlier HT report.Party leaders said the move was meant to guard against poaching or last-minute defections. With the stakes high and the numbers close, even a few corporators switching sides could alter the balance.Once the majority is secured, the ruling side decides who will occupy the mayor’s chair. The process mirrors how the prime minister or chief ministers are chosen – elected representatives pick their leader from among themselves.BJP tops the chart, but ‘not happy’Although the BJP emerged as the single-largest party in the Mumbai polls, its tally remains well short of the majority mark on its own. This has triggered concerns within the party as well, particularly given the expectations it had set before the elections.Ahead of seat-sharing talks, the BJP had initially planned to contest more than 155 seats and aimed to win around 120–125. However, after the intervention of the party’s central leadership, Shinde is said to have negotiated aggressively and secured 91 seats for his party, leaving the BJP with 137.Also Read | Uddhav drops cryptic message, Shinde moves all corporators to hotelWith its reduced seat share, the BJP revised its target to 110 seats but managed to win only 89.“The party had inducted 11 sitting corporators from other parties, taking the tally of sitting corporators to 93, including its own 82, ahead of the polls. We could not even retain that number,” said a BJP leader, requesting anonymity.Party leaders have attributed the underwhelming finish to lack of coordination within the Mumbai unit, flawed candidate selection, and the failure to counter the “Marathi asmita and Mumbai pride” pitch made by Raj and Uddhav Thackeray.Also Read | 'BJP first choice for all': PM Modi on party's big Maharashtra, Kerala, Bihar winsUddhav Thackeray keeps door ajar?Despite losing control of the civic body, Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray reiterated that it remained his “dream” to see a Shiv Sena (UBT) mayor in Mumbai and said that dream could still come true “if god is willing”.A day after the results, Uddhav also made a cryptic remark suggesting that his party could still have its mayor in Mumbai, though he did not spell out how.Leaders from the opposition camp also argue that the numbers tell a different story if the Shiv Sena had not split. Sena (UBT) leader Sunil Prabhu said the BJP’s success was possible only because the Shiv Sena was divided.Former Congress leader Sanjay Jha also had the same view, in a post on X, he said, “If SS was united, the BJP had no chance in the BMC elections.”He added that if the factions truly wanted to “restore the SS glory”, a patch-up could still force the BJP into the opposition.The figures back the argument. While the BJP won 89 seats, Uddhav Thackeray’s Sena secured 65 and Shinde’s faction 29. Together, the two Sena factions would have had 94 seats — more than the BJP’s tally. An alliance with the Congress could have comfortably pushed them past the majority mark.