Wimbledon 2025 women’s singles preview, prediction: Sabalenka, Gauff — or will London deliver another surprise?

Unlike the sustained ascendency often seen in men’s lawn lawn tennis, the force kinetics in women’s tennis have shifted constantly in recent years — a trend most evident at Wimbledon. From the reign of Iga Swiatek to the emergence of the so-called Big Three to the ongoing battles between Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff, the landscape has remained fluid. Yet one constant stands out: Wimbledon’s unpredictability. The last seven editions have seen seven different champions, while 13 different players have reached the semifinals over the last four years. As the third Grand Slam of the season gets underway at the All England Club on Monday, the question looms — will there be an eighth new winner in London?

Consistency has defined Aryna Sabalenka’s 2025 season. She has reached seven finals in 10 tournaments so far, including both Grand Slams. But where she’s fallen short is at the final hurdle — losing four of her last six finals, including both majors. While widely regarded as a hard-court specialist, Sabalenka has built an impressive relationship with grass, reaching the semifinals at Wimbledon in each of the last two years. Last week in Berlin, she made the semis again, saving four match points to beat Elena Rybakina in a dramatic final-set tie-break.

However, the two-time Australian Open champion has been handed a tough draw in London. She could face 2023 champion Marketa Vondrousova as early as the third round — Vondrousova is coming off a title run in Berlin, where she beat world No. 1 Swiatek. A potential fourth-round clash looms against two-time semifinalist Elina Svitolina, followed by a rematch with Madison Keys — the woman who beat her in the Australian Open final — in the quarters.

Quarterfinal pick: Sabalenka defeats Keys

Jasmine Paolini hasn’t entered Wimbledon with the same form she enjoyed in 2024. After a fourth-round exit at Roland Garros, she suffered a first-round loss to Ons Jabeur in Berlin and was thoroughly outplayed by Swiatek in Bad Homburg. But despite the recent setbacks, the Italian — seeded fourth — has landed in arguably the softest section of the draw, giving her a golden opportunity to bounce back.

Her biggest potential test could come in the quarterfinals, possibly against Zheng Qinwen, who has yet to make it past the second round at Wimbledon in the past two years. Jelena Ostapenko, a former semifinalist at SW19, is also in this quarter, though fitness concerns linger after she retired injured in Eastbourne this week.

Quarterfinal pick: Paolini

Barbora Krejčíková’s title defense has already raised alarm bells. After a first-round exit at Queen’s and an injury retirement in Eastbourne, her fitness is a major concern. To complicate matters, she opens against the in-form Alex Eala — a finalist in Eastbourne — making a first-round upset a real possibility.

That shifts the spotlight to Jessica Pegula, who is riding high after defeating Swiatek to win the Bad Homburg title. Despite her poor track record at Wimbledon (only one second-round appearance before reaching the 2023 quarterfinal), Pegula looks poised to make a deep run this year. Karolina Muchova could challenge her in the fourth round, while the talented but inexperienced Mirra Andreeva is on the opposite side of the quarter. The 17-year-old Russian has made strides this season but is just 1-2 on grass in 2025.

Quarterfinal pick: Pegula

It was at Wimbledon, six years ago, that a 15-year-old Coco Gauff had her breakthrough campaign by stunning five-time champion Venus Williams in the first round. But in her subsequent four trips to London, the American has managed just eight more wins across 12 matches, never progressing beyond the fourth round.

Fresh off her Slam triumph in Paris — followed by a first-round exit on grass in Berlin — Gauff will hope to amend her Wimbledon record, though the draw has done her few favours. She opens against the tricky Dayana Yastremska, with potential clashes against Victoria Azarenka in the second round and a resurgent Sofia Kenin — who beat her at Wimbledon two years ago — in the third.

The other half of the quarter features former champion Elena Rybakina, who holds a 16-2 record at Wimbledon over the past three years, and Iga Swiatek, who has had an unusual 2025. After falling to No. 8 in the WTA rankings, Swiatek bounced back by reaching the final in Bad Homburg this week. Yet, despite her dominance elsewhere, she is just 11-5 at SW19 and has never made it past the quarterfinal stage.

Quarterfinal pick: Gauff beats Swiatek

Semifinals: Sabalenka beats Paolini; Gauff beats Pegula

Final: Sabalenka beats Gauff.

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