Europe’s 'appeasement' strategy with Trump has failed. So what comes next?

looking for typically solemn, brits undercoat government minister Keir Starmer stepped up to the podium on Monday morning and made a compelling case for respectful, deliberate diplomatic engagement with Donald Trump over the Greenland crisis, warning the U.K. Has too much at stake economically and militarily to be driven by emotion.

“The right way to approach a discussion of an issue this serious is calm discussion between allies,” he said. 

Even Starmer's adversaries in Britain’s right-wing populist parties had to agree his cool-headed response — which involved praising the U.S.'s historic leadership role while taking issue with the president’s coercion — was the right way to go.

Then, within hours, it all blew up in Starmer’s face.

In a social media post overnight on Tuesday, Trump called Starmer's unrelated decision to relinquish Diego Garcia, a U.K.-controlled island in the Indian Ocean that's part of the Chagos Islands, “an act of great stupidity.”

“Shockingly, our ‘brilliant’ NATO ally, the United Kingdom, is currently planning to give away the island of Diego Garcia, the site of a vital US military base to Mauritius, and to do so FOR NO REASON WHATSOEVER,” Trump wrote.

Trump appeared to suggest the U.S. Can't trust weak allies when it comes to protecting its security interests, implicitly linking the Chagos Islands decision to his pressing need to acquire Greenland.

Never mind that just a few months ago, Trump’s Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the British government’s return of Diego Garcia to Mauritius — in exchange for a long-term lease for the military base there — “a monumental achievement.”

Also never mind that Trump’s own people were involved in negotiating that deal.

Trump's desire to make Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, part of the United States has grown into an obsession that threatens the NATO alliance and the entire postwar order.

Why Trump wants Greenland

Yet despite the fact that Prime Minister Starmer rolled out multiple red carpets for Trump on a recent state visit to Britain hosted by King Charles and has resorted to all kinds of diplomatic niceties to try to achieve favourable trade outcomes for the U.K., the U.S. President showed no restraint in deliberately humiliating Starmer when it suited him.

"It's time for the government to stand up to Trump; appeasing a bully never works," Liberal Democrat Leader Ed Davey posted on social media Tuesday.

Gavin Newsom, the governor of California who aspires to be the next Democratic presidential nominee, went even further on Tuesday while attending the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. He urged European leaders to “grow a backbone,” suggesting Europe got what it deserved by trying to play nice with a president who is inherently unreasonable.

“I can’t take this complicity,” said Newsom. €œGet off your knees and grow a spine.” 

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who has decades of experience dealing with Russian President Vladimir Putin, similarly threw down the gauntlet to his European colleagues.

“Appeasement is always a sign of weakness. Europe cannot afford to be weak — neither against its enemies nor ally.”

Ian Lesser with the German Marshall Fund think-tank in Berlin said it's fair to say Europe’s efforts to handle Trump are failing.

“It’s a moment of huge strain and a test for the transatlantic relationship,” said Lesser. €œ[Trump] seems to be laser-focused on this desire to acquire Greenland and nothing's going to get in the way of it.”

European troops arrive in Greenland as Trump stands firm

Starmer’s efforts to maintain dialogue while avoiding escalation with Trump echoes the approach of most other European leaders.

But Trump’s reaction demonstrates the authoritarian-leaning president is perfectly willing to throw his allies under the bus, even when they go out of their way to ingratiate themselves to him, says Lesser.

“The president is really out there setting these policies and carrying out this dialogue alone by himself," said Lesser. "And that makes it very, very difficult to deal with him over these things.”

Besides slagging Britain's Starmer, overnight on Tuesday, Trump also posted private text messages sent by French President Emmanuel Macron and NATO head Mark Rutte, where they spoke about wanting to meet to dial down the temperature on the issue of Greenland.

Trump's decision to make their personal messages public on Truth Social could hinder the ability of other leaders to conduct crisis diplomacy — and perhaps suggests Trump has little interest in their perspective.

British commentators have long questioned whether Starmer’s “appeasement” risked making the U.K. Look weak. Yet in the aftermath of Trump’s outburst over the Chagos Islands, there was also acknowledgment of the tightrope most leaders are walking.

“There's no guaranteed route to Donald Trump’s good books,” journalist Jenni Russel said on a Times Radio podcast. “We are handling someone who is a cross between a snarling animal ... And a mafia gang boss. And then on the other hand, someone who is terribly susceptible to flattery.” 

Britain and the rest of Europe have the means to push back against Trump. But every option comes with risk.

Trump famously berated Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office last year, telling him — wrongly — that he didn’t have any “cards” to play in the war with Russia.

But in an analysis published this week called “Arctic Hold 'Em," the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) suggests 10 “cards” that give European countries leverage against Trump. They include building a coalition of European countries against a U.S. Takeover of Greenland and ensuring Greenland and Denmark — which have frequently disagreed on the island's future — now speak with a single voice.

The ECFR also said it is essential for Europeans to engage with “factions within the [U.S.] administration, including military officials, that favour restraint in Greenland,” noting there’s strong opposition beyond the White House to Trump’s Greenland coercion. 

The think-tank's poker-themed critique went on to suggest that Europe should pre-emptively announce economic sanctions on any U.S. Company “exploiting Greenlandic resources under U.S. Annexation.”

The ECFR says that as Trump appears to want to move quickly on Greenland, anything Europe can do to slow the process down works to its advantage.

Jacob Funk Kirkegaard with the Brussels-based think-tank Bruegel agrees.

“Denmark and Europe want to run the clock down, hopefully until the end of Republican primary season [about mid-2026], where the hope is that would loosen his sway over Republicans in Congress,” Kirkegaard said.

Kirkegaard says he believes Europeans must steel themselves that economic pain is likely unavoidable over Greenland.

“I think the EU will now have to recognize how high the stakes are — that this is not just another transatlantic trade war, this is actually the European Union fighting a trade war to discourage Donald Trump from actually launching a real [war],” he said.

Trump has said eight NATO members — including the U.K., which sent small contingents of soldiers to Greenland in a show of support for Denmark — will face tariffs of 10 per cent starting Feb. 1, rising to more than 25 per cent in June, and staying in place until Trump gets control of the island.

On Tuesday, Europe’s Parliament took initial steps in retaliation by freezing the ratification of the U.S.-Europe trade deal, and has raised the possibility of retaliation with new tariffs if Trump introduces his.

The EU could also put restrictions on U.S. Companies that do business in Europe, an extreme measure that has not been tried before.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum on Tuesday, Belgium’s Prime Minister Bart De Wever addressed the need to stop placating Trump, making some of the day’s strongest comments.

“We were lenient, hoping to get [Trump’s] support for the Ukraine war," said De Wever.

“If you back down now, you’re going to lose your dignity,” he continued. €œBeing a happy vassal is one thing. Being a miserable slave is something else.”

Foreign correspondent

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