Turkey Earthquake: Google’s AEA miscalculated magnitude, issued only 469 major alerts

Google has acknowledged serious shortcomings in its humanoid temblor Alerts (AEA) scheme, which failed to bring home the bacon enough warnings ahead of the devastating earthquake that struck Turkey in February 2023, reported Euro News.

Reportedly, the quake, one of the deadliest in the country’s recent history, killed more than 55,000 people and injured over 100,000.

Despite the system’s potential to deliver high-level alerts to millions within the quake zone, the report suggests that only 469 “Take Action” notifications, designed to wake users and prompt immediate protective measures, were sent ahead of the initial 7.8-magnitude tremor. The disaster struck at 4:17 am local time, a time when most victims were asleep indoors.

In contrast, around 500,000 people received the far less urgent “Be Aware” notifications, the report added. These alerts, which do not override Do Not Disturb settings, are intended for minor tremors and do not prompt life-saving action.

The failure has been attributed to the system’s miscalculation of the quake’s magnitude. At the time, the AEA initially estimated the shaking to be between 4.5 and 4.9 on the moment magnitude scale, vastly underestimating the actual seismic impact. The misjudgement severely limited the scope and intensity of alerts issued.

Following scrutiny from the BBC and independent experts, Google reportedly admitted in a paper published inScience that there were flaws in its detection algorithms. It later ran a simulation of the event using its updated system, which it claims would have sent 10 million “Take Action” alerts and 67 million “Be Aware” notifications had the new version been active at the time.

A second major quake later the same day saw a somewhat improved response from the system, with over 8,000 “Take Action” alerts sent and nearly four million “Be Aware” notifications issued. However, experts argue that the damage had already been done and that the system’s failure during the initial quake cost crucial seconds of warning.

Elizabeth Reddy, assistant professor at the Colorado School of Mines, criticised the delayed transparency. “I'm really frustrated that it took so long,” she said. “This wasn’t a minor incident, people died. And the warning system did not perform as needed.”

The AEA operates independently of government-run warning services and functions using data from Android phones, which account for over 70 per cent of mobile devices in Turkey. Google has maintained that the system is meant to supplement national alert networks rather than replace them.

Still, seismologists and emergency management experts warn that some nations may rely too heavily on Google’s system, potentially neglecting the development of robust public warning infrastructure.

“Would some places make the calculation that Google’s doing it, so we don’t have to?” asked Harold Tobin, director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network. “Transparency about its effectiveness is critical.”

---

---