Has India agreed to zero tariff on American goods? Questions cloud Trump-Modi deal amid tall claims, little detail

THere's a long lean of questions that remain unreciprocated on the India-US merchandise trade proclaimed on Monday by President Donald Trump and confirmed by PM Narendra Modi, with New Delhi particularly cagey on Tuesday even as Trump made some major claims in his Truth Social post.The US side was much more forthcoming even as “papering” was still on before the deal can actually be signed.US trade representative Jamieson Greer posted on X on Tuesday: “India will lower tariffs on a wide array of US industrial and agricultural goods to 0%. President Trump’s historic deal with India delivers unprecedented market access for American farmers and producers.” He did add in an interview that the deal will allow India to maintain protections against import of some agricultural products.Agriculture was among the “red line” drawn by India during negotiations, and a minister claimed on Tuesday, too, that it's been protected. But he said no more.Opaqueness, thus, blanketed most points of curiosity and contention as of Tuesday night.Also read | India-US trade deal being ‘papered’: Trump trade representative Jamieson Greer echoes Goyal's remarksBits of info from US trade rep, praise from GoyalIndia's commerce minister Piyush Goyal called the press but only delivered a 20-minute address, in which he praised the Modi-Trump “friendship” and promised benefits to “all 140 crore (1.4 bn) Indians”. He said the deal will be inked after “finalising… shortly”. News agency ANI cited sources to say a joint statement may be issued within this week.Greer, meanwhile, in an interview to CNBC, said India's tariffs “for a variety of things, you know, tree nuts, wine, spirits, fruits, vegetables, etc — they're going down to zero”.He notably did not mention rice, soybeans, sugar or dairy, which are commodities that India excluded from its recent trade deal with the European Union too, news agency Bloomberg noted in its report.That's the extent of detail for now, but it only adds to the unanswered questions.Timing and politicsPolitically, it's big move for Modi, coming when Opposition leader Rahul Gandhi brought to Parliament excerpts of an unpublished book by a former Indian army chief, Gen MM Naravane, that he said would “expose the character of PM Modi and defence minister Rajnath Singh” on how they handled the India-China border tensions.Within hours of pandemonium in the Lok Sabha on this issue, the deal and tariff cut announcement by Trump took over the airwaves and conversations.It does signal a major step to reset fractured ties with the deal slashing tariffs for sure from 50% to 18%. That includes scrapping the punitive duty tied to purchases of Russian oil.What has Modi agreed to?As to what's been agreed to in return by Modi, Trump said the Indian PM — “one my greatest friends” — agreed to buy $500 billion of US goods, cut tariffs on the US to zero, and stop buying crude oil from Russia, as the Americans believe Delhi's purchases indirectly “funded” the war in Ukraine.PM Modi didn’t confirm the details of the deal in his X post that followed Trump's post, except for the reduced 18% tariff rate.India currently imports less than $50 billion a year from the US, so ratcheting that up to $500 billion would be challenging — something Indian opposition party Congress's MP Shashi Tharoor flagged.The party's top leader, Rahul Gandhi, accused Modi of “selling the country under pressure”.Even so, the agreed-to deal was hailed by officials from both sides and cheered by sections of investors."What products are covered, what the timelines are, and whether India has really agreed to zero tariffs and zero non-tariff barriers, especially in sensitive areas like agriculture and regulated imports — these are unanswered,” said Ajay Srivastava, founder of New Delhi-based think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).“It is great news for the US-India relationship,” Kenneth Juster, a former US envoy to India, said in an interview on Tuesday with Bloomberg TV.“If they continue to work on it, we can see the rate drop further,” he added, hopeful this is for the long term in spite of how Trump has behaved towards India, oscillating between expressions of love and outright allegations of “funding the war in Ukraine”.Also read | Trump's claims on India deal range from zero to $500bnTrump was reportedly upset PM Modi did not agree with his claim that he brokered a ceasefire between India and Pakistan in May 2025. He was hoping that'll bolster his Nobel Peace Prize prospects.The subsequent 50% US tariff rate, imposed in August, hurt India’s labour-intensive industries and soured diplomatic ties.Russian oil, Venezuela, $500bn ‘commitment’A major sticking point so far was India’s purchases of Russian oil, especially after Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine upended trade flows and made discounted supplies attractive.In his post on Monday, the US president said Modi agreed to buy more oil from the US and potentially Venezuela, which Washington runs after “seizing” its president Nicolas Maduro and “permitting” vice president Delcy Rodriguez to take the chair.Trump has also claimed India will buy oil from Venezuela instead of US enemy Iran.PM Modi just last week spoke with Venezuela's Rodriguez. The Indian government said Modi and Rodriguez “agreed to further expand and deepen the bilateral partnership in all areas, including trade and investment, energy, digital technology, health, agriculture and people-to-people ties”.As to whether Trump's wishes have been granted by India on where it'll buy oil from, nothing was statedly clear.Russia, a longtime partner of India, said it had no such information as of now.The agreement to buy $500 billion-worth of goods is a commitment over five years, an unnamed official in Delhi told Bloomberg, even as Trump did not specify a timeline. This could include an existing pipeline of projects, as well as new areas of spending, such as data centres, oil and other energy resources.Best deal in the region, says Piyush GoyalThere are some clear positives, though, for India, especially when Trump’s closer ties with arch-rival Pakistan had also strained Delhi-Washington relations.Piyush Goyal specifically said India had got “the best deal in the region”, among its neighbours.While India's economy is not primarily export-driven, the US is India’s biggest market, accounting for about a fifth of its exports. At 18%, India’s tariff is now lower than Vietnam’s 20% rate and the 19% applied to most of Southeast Asia.That may spur manufacturing investment into India, as an alternative hub to China. A senior Indian bureaucrat told Bloomberg on Tuesday that GDP growth rate may now reach 7.4% in the new fiscal year starting April, exceeding projections of 6.8%–7.2%.India’s chief economic adviser, V Anantha Nageswaran said in an interview that the “China-plus-one” process of luring exporters to India “was getting a bit disrupted due to these tariff uncertainties”.“The details remain cloudy, but topline, if both sides reduce tariffs as meaningfully as indicated on social media, this could unlock real commercial opportunities,” Rick Rossow, a senior adviser and chair on India and Emerging Asia Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, was quoted as saying.Then there are other areas beyond trade that open up thanks to a thaw. Analysts said the deal could give “new impetus” to the Quad, a grouping of the US, Japan, India and Australia aimed at countering China’s growing influence.Surprise after months, Sergio Gor's roleSigns of a thaw between the two economies emerged after Trump called Modi on his birthday in September. But no one was quite sure, given that he later threatened more tariffs if India bought oil from Iran.Negotiations for a deal were on since Trump returned to power early last year, but there no recent indications that a deal was imminent.US trade rep Greer had said last week that while India had “made a lot of progress” in curbing Russian oil purchases, “they still have a ways to go”.Progress seemed to accelerate after the arrival of Sergio Gor last month as US ambassador. A Trump family confidant, he wrote on X following Trump’s announcement on Monday that the relationship between the US and India has “LIMITLESS POTENTIAL" — deploying all-caps much like his boss.Piyush Goyal, meanwhile, set some limits. He said New Delhi has protected sensitive sectors such as agriculture and dairy in the deal. This, after US agriculture secretary Brooke Rollins said the deal would send more American farm products to India.Neither side shared additional details on this too.Anyhow, the US deal comes just days after India secured a landmark deal with the European Union, bringing the number of trade pacts New Delhi has signed since May 2025 to five.India was among the first to open trade talks with the Trump administration last year, but ties soured after the US president repeatedly claimed credit for the ceasefire between India and Pakistan, while tariffs further eroded ties. That's a thing of the past, for sure, but contours of the deal have given birth to new questions domestically for Narendra Modi. Trump's mixed past record is a factor too.