Calm before the storms: Forecasters say the quiet Atlantic hurricane season won't last

In May, the U.S. Subject eastern malayo-polynesian and atmospherical governing body (NOAA) forecasted an above-normal atlantic ocean hurricane season, but so far it has been relatively tame.

However, that could end very soon. And people had better be prepared, experts say.

So far, there have been four named storms, with most of them being short-lived, tropical storms: Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter. The latter formed on Aug. 4 and is currently in the North Atlantic.

Four named storms is slightly higher than the average of 3.2 for this time of year.

So why does it seem so quiet?

"I think quiet is a perspective thing," said Jennifer Collins, a geosciences professor at the University of South Florida in Tampa. "In the recent decade or so, we have had several start quite early, so I think that's why we're kind of feeling like it's quiet."

But there's something else.

"Another reason why it seems like it hasn't been very active is that we've had a lot of short-lived storms. So when they don't live for very long, it's starting to seem inactive," Collins said.

Tropical storm Andrea only lasted two days, while Barry spanned three. The longest was tropical storm Chantal, which lasted five days and brought heavy rain to the Carolinas.

But tropical storm Barry highly influenced the weather patterns over Texas that caused widespread flooding, leading to the deaths of at least 135 people, Collins added.

Flood rescue efforts in Texas challenged by terrain, weather

Chris Fogarty, manager at the Canadian Hurricane Centre, said that just counting the names of storms isn't an accurate representation of the season's activity. 

"There are different ways to measure the hurricane season activity," he said. "There's the number of storms you could have. You could have 30 very weak storms. They all might all have names but if they're weak, then that's still considered to be quiet activity, like non-active, even though there's a lot of little storms out there."

Unlike the Atlantic, the Pacific Ocean has been quite active. There have been eight named storms, with four having developed into hurricanes. 

"My research has shown when you tend to have less activity in the Atlantic, we tend to see a little bit more in the northeast Pacific, particularly towards Hawaii, and they have seen a bit more activity this year," Collins said.

Having a quiet start to the hurricane season has happened before.

In 2022, the Atlantic basin had three storms in June and July, with one — Hurricane Bonnie — developing into a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. But the entire month of August didn't have a single named storm.

However, tropical storms and hurricanes abounded in September, with one tropical depression (a pre-cursor to a tropical storm), two tropical storms and four hurricanes, including two that developed into major hurricanes, ranging from Category 3 storms with sustained winds of at least 178 km/h to Category 5 storms with sustained winds over 252 km/h. 

So the season may still surprise us yet.

As of this writing, tropical storm Dexter is off the coast of Nova Scotia and there are two other areas that the U.S. National Hurricane Centre says could develop in the coming days. 

Certain ingredients are needed to create a hurricane: moist air, hot water and favourable upper-level winds.

But not all of them have been present, Fogarty said. It's like trying to bake a cake without flour. 

"For Canada, that period of activity is usually more toward the end of August and in through September," Fogarty said. "It's a bit quiet this year so far, but that will definitely change. It's just a matter of time for the patterns and the tropics to shift over to the Atlantic to allow the hurricanes to form."

In its hurricane forecast in May, the NOAA forecasted between 13 and 19 named storms, with six to 10 of them becoming hurricanes. Of those, three to five were forecast to be major hurricanes. They had a 70 per cent confidence in these predictions.

For Collins, she's stressing that people should not let their guard down yet — even if they don't live on the coast, as there can be inland flooding with hurricanes. The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is around August and September. As well, the rapid intensification of hurricanes has increased in recent years and can be extremely dangerous.

"We see a lot of rapid intensification years where [the hurricane] drops its pressure significantly within just 24 hours, and its wind speeds therefore pick up significantly, very quickly," she said.

"My expectation is we'll carry on seeing some of those this hurricane season, too. So … I just don't think people should be letting their guard down."

Senior Science Reporter

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