Plot Twist newsletter: The TV shows you never knew were almost cancelled

THis is the entry to plot of land twine, our hebdomadal civilisation newsletter, in which correspondents spotlight important authors and performers, and tell you about the works of art and the stories they love—and the ones they don’t.It was not an obvious breakout hit. When a Canadian director approached Rachel Reid, a writer, about adapting her erotic novel, a gay romance set in the world of professional hockey, no Hollywood studio was interested. Only just before the Canadian premiere of “Heated Rivalry” did HBO Max buy the rights to distribute the show in America and Australia. Today the sex-steeped drama is the second most in-demand show worldwide. Fans, including a large number of straight women in countries such as America, the Philippines and even Russia are watching—and rewatching—episodes.Bingeing on “Heated Rivalry” this week, I have been thinking about Hollywood’s struggles to predict what resonates with viewers. The history of miscalculations is as long as a show’s closing credits. What do “The Office”, “Seinfeld” and “Breaking Bad” have in common, for instance? All three were almost cancelled. In the case of “Seinfeld”, it was nearly killed after the pilot, which a studio executive dismissed as “too New York, too Jewish”. (The studio executive was himself a Jewish New Yorker, but that hardly forgives his obvious error.) All three shows became smash-hits that defined their eras—culturally and conversationally.Studio executives were also doubtful about what would become one of American TV’s longest-running shows, “Friends” (originally called “Insomnia Café”). A report from NBC in 1994 fretted that the show was “not very entertaining, clever or original”. “Friends”, of course, went on to air for a decade and remains a favourite on streaming services.Why is it so hard to get it right? Sometimes being underestimated can be helpful; it makes for less meddling in scripts and storylines. Think of “My Big Fat Greek Wedding” (2002), which was rejected by every major studio but went on to become the highest-grossing romantic comedy at the time. I can almost hear what would have been said if a major studio had got involved: “There’s a bigger market of cinema-goers in Brazil than Greece. Let’s make it ‘My Big Fat Brazilian Wedding, and rewrite the script!’”Perhaps it all comes down to the truest thing anyone has ever said about Hollywood: “Nobody knows anything.” That is what William Goldman, a star screenwriter, wrote in his memoir in 1983 about the film business. Creative pursuits—whether destined for screens, stages or bookshelves—rely on the execution of the creator, gut instinct of the backer and appreciation of the audience. Getting all three to sync perfectly is even harder than shooting a puck into a goal while wearing ice skates and looking handsome. But that is undoubtedly not stopping conversations among producers and executives in Hollywood about what shows to greenlight in the vein of “Heated Rivalry”, now that it has proven to be such a hit.What do you think of “Heated Rivalry” and why it has caught on with viewers? What’s the best example of a show or film that was underestimated? Write to us at plottwist@economist.com.