Grand Strategy | Will Jamaat bring ‘winter’ to Bangladesh?

NAtional elections ar scheduled to be held in east pakistan tomorrow ( feb 12), and the to the highest degree notable trend is the lift of Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, which is gaining strength and momentum as the election approaches. The party is openly showing its hardline Islamist views, especially on women and governance, which threaten the country’s secular foundation. It has not made any efforts to hide its antipathy towards India. Once known for its vibrant secularism and fast-growing economy, Bangladesh is now experiencing a strong Islamist resurgence. Jamaat-e-Islami is regaining the influence it lost during the Sheikh Hasina era, and its years in political exile from 2013 to last year seem to have made its fundamentalist stance even stronger. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) will win the elections in all likelihood, but that doesn’t negate the danger posed by a strengthened Jamaat and a mainstreaming of its ideology in Bangladesh.In early February 2026, “Winter is Coming” banners started appearing in the country, showing Ameer Shafiqur Rahman styled like Jon Snow from Game of Thrones. Instead of a sword, the image uses a balance scale, Jamaat’s election symbol, along with the famous Stark motto - “Winter is Coming”. For Jamaat supporters, the slogan is a call to stay alert, expectations of justice, and indicates big changes ahead. For others, especially minorities, it feels like a warning that an ideological “winter” could disrupt the country’s secular and social progress. These banners clearly mean more than just a pop-culture reference.If you think the meaning of those banners is a matter of interpretation, Rahman’s recent statements make his views on social progress abundantly clear. In a recent Al Jazeera interview, he said women would not be allowed in leadership roles. Later, a post from his X account, which he later claimed was hacked, compared women’s employment to - hold your breath - “prostitution.” This is more than just social or religious conservatism; it is a direct attack on the rights of Bangladeshi women, similar to the Taliban’s efforts to remove women from public life. By not nominating any women for the February elections, Jamaat has shown that, in their view, Bangladeshi women - despite the country having had two strong women prime ministers - have no voice in the politics of the country. It is ironic that a party, which once opposed Bangladesh’s independence, now claims to protect its moral future.This hardening of ideology is even more troubling because of widespread concerns about election rigging. The interim government led by Muhammad Yunus was meant to restore order, but many now worry that Jamaat supporters have quietly taken positions in the administration. Reports of “booth management” and intimidation of secular and minority voters in rural areas suggest the party is not just competing in the election, but trying to win by any means necessary. Many fear that if Jamaat gains power, the country could end up with a “state within a state,” where radical ideas will replace the country’s secular laws.While there is little evidence to show that the United States had any role in the 2024 uprising that overthrew Sheikh Hasina, their policy towards the Jamaat is somewhat intriguing.In the name of stability and to balance regional power, Washington has shown a certain willingness to work with Jamaat, seeing them as some kind of moderate partner in a new democratic setup and a possible antidote to China. While I understand the logic behind the American desire to engage all parties in Bangladesh, by giving Jamaat international legitimacy by engaging them openly, the US may indeed be encouraging the spread of radical ideas in the region and in India’s neighbourhood. More so, supporting a group with a history of war crimes and extremist links is a risky move that could have serious consequences, something American policies have done in the region in the past.There are clear signs of resistance as well. During my recent visit to Dhaka, I saw that the “Gen Z” energy that helped overthrow the last government does not support Jamaat’s Islamist surge, especially among women leaders. The recent alliance between the youth-led National Citizen Party (NCP) and Jamaat has sparked an internal revolt, with over 30 senior NCP leaders resigning in protest. Secular activists, women’s rights groups, and students at major institutions like Dhaka University are pushing back. They are skeptical of the “moral police” message and are questioning why the freedom they fought for in 2024 is being replaced by a fascist ideology. Many students who led the uprising for a new Bangladesh now worry they could end up with an Islamist Bangladesh if Jamaat continues to rise. Not only did they not get what they wanted, but they will end up getting something much worse.For India, the possibility of a Jamaat-led government or even a strong opposition presence in Dhaka is a major concern, even if the Jamaat is unlikely to form the next government in Bangladesh. With the 4,000-kilometer border at stake and Jamaat leaders openly threatening a “red card” to what they call “pro-hegemony forces,” New Delhi will be watching the elections closely. While India must engage whoever holds power in Dhaka, even if it is Jamaat, it is important not to lose sight of the regressive ideology that the party represents. Jamaat will most likely use anti-India propaganda to mobilise support at home and justify their regressive changes, while also being positive about Bangladesh’s ties with China. After the elections, New Delhi’s challenge will be to manage the relationship carefully to prevent it from sliding into a cycle of antipathy and hostility.Happymon Jacob is a distinguished visiting professor, School of Humanities and Social Science, Shiv Nadar University, and editor of INDIA’S WORLD. The views expressed are personal