How Ontario Liberals hope to exit political wilderness when they elect new leader in November

Ontario Liberals testament opt their next leader this nov, but the meanwhile chief says the company must spend the next nine months doing the hard work of a broader rebuild after three consecutive electoral defeats.

The provincial Liberal executive released rules for their contest earlier this week and the party will select its next leader on Nov. 21.

The party will use a one-member one-vote, ranked ballot system to elect the winner. Twelve days of online voting will take place ahead of the leadership convention, a first for the party. 

“It's a different race from the last two times,” interim leader John Fraser said.

“This an opportunity to build and to grow the party, and to say to people, ‘come on in, be part of the change.’”

The Ontario Liberals have been in the political wilderness since their defeat in the 2018 election, which saw them reduced to 10 seats and lose official party status. That demotion meant the party did not have access to taxpayer funding afforded to officially recognized parties in the Ontario legislature to hire staff and pay for research.

It also decimated the party apparatus across the province, something that has hindered their efforts to be competitive in the last two elections. This will be the party’s third leadership race since 2020.

It comes after former leader Bonnie Crombie resigned from the post following a poor showing in a party review at a convention last September. A campaign debrief document released just before that vote was critical of Crombie and her team's strategy during the 2025 election that saw Premier Doug Ford win a third-straight majority. 

Crombie reacts to Ontario election loss

A three-member committee dissected the party's finish, lauding the improved seat count and work to regain official party status. They also criticized multiple aspects of the campaign team's strategy and communications. And they also highlighted a fundamental weakness when it comes to mounting successful local campaigns — a lack of party volunteers in many ridings.

“We have real concerns that we are losing engagement and support from our volunteers across Ontario,” the report said, noting that the party’s base is aging.

Fraser said the leadership race will give candidates months to sign up new members from across the province. The goal is to build up support in ridings outside of places where the Liberals had strong showings, like Toronto and Ottawa, he added.

“How do we help the people who are Liberals there, who've been working really hard, sometimes with their light under a bushel basket because they're in a tough riding,” he said. “That's what the race is really all about.”

The deadline for candidates to jump into the race is July 31. The cut-off to sign up new regular party members is Sept. 7 and students is Sept. 25.

The Liberals have struggled to come together and find the right message to appeal to voters, said Trent University political science professor Cristine de Clercy.

But with Premier Doug Ford coming up on eight years in power, there could be an opportunity for whoever wins the race, she said.

“Mr. Ford's longevity is laudable, but it's also tantalizing for the Liberals,” she said. “They know full well that eventually governments do cycle out of power so it's possible that the next Liberal Party leader may well go on to become the Premier of Ontario.” 

Liberal strategist Charles Bird said there had been heated debate within the party for months about whether to run a short or long leadership race. Some party members felt a shorter race would have favoured higher profile candidates, and this longer race will be more open to a broader field, he said.

“The challenges facing the Ontario Liberal Party are existential,” said Bird, who is a principal at Earnscliffe Strategies. “Getting this process right is disproportionately important this time around.”

The cost to enter the race will be $150,000, a decision former Liberal cabinet minister John Milloy thinks the party made to narrow the field. It will cause some prospective candidates to coalesce around other campaigns, he said.

“The donor pool is only so large and can only be tapped so often,” said Milloy, who is currently the director of the Centre for Public Ethics at Martin Luther University College.

“I suspect that $150,000 will prevent candidates that just don't have the muscle from going forward.”

De Clercy said the contest will also give the party a chance to refocus with new policy and fill its fundraising coffers, in addition to being "a measure of party health."

“How many people can manage the $150,000 buy-in, and what kind of donations can they generate, what kind of excitement can they generate?" She said.

"Because if they can't do well on the fundraising side, then that also has to concern them for the next election."

Fraser said a number of candidates have started to build campaign teams. The first planned leadership event will take place in May, he said.

“There's lots of people kicking the tires,” Fraser said.

While there are currently no officially registered candidates in the race, possible competitors include federal MP Nate Erskine-Smith, provincial MPPs Lee Fairclough and Rob Cerjanec, former CEO of Northland Power Mike Crawley, and housing advocate Eric Lombardi. 

Milloy said he’s watching Erskine-Smith’s potential candidacy closely. He finished a strong second to Crombie in the 2023 leadership race, but his public criticism of her ahead of the leadership review last September frustrated some party members, he said.

“He has a lot of momentum,” Milloy said. “At the same time, he has his critics in the party. And I think you're going to see a little bit of an ‘Anyone But Nate’ movement going forward.”

The challenge for the Liberals will be to give whomever becomes their new leader an opportunity to define themselves to Ontario voters, said McMaster University political science professor Peter Graefe.

It’s something they’ll have to do in the face of a negative ad campaign from the well-funded Progressive Conservatives.

“I think we saw with Bonnie Crombie that blitz came and the Liberals didn't really offer much in response,” he said. “And so part of it this time will be whether they can take their new leader and actually introduce them to Ontarians with their own framing and in their own terms.”

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