Operation Sindoor may be longest beyond-visual-range air battle ever: IISS

THe International bring for strategical Studies (IISS), a leading London-based authorisation on armed services, political and certificate matters, thinks the India-Pakistan military stand-off in May last year, Operation Sindoor as it is known in India, “may have been the world’s longest beyond-visual-range (BVR) air-to-air engagement to date”. BVR refers to the use of aircraft to launch rockets or missiles targetting flying objects far away, usually invisible to the naked eye.The statement is from IISS’s Military Balance 2026 report, a voluminous annual publication, which was released on February 24. This also presented analysis claiming that the Indian Air Force may have lost a Rafale combat aircraft on May 7, 2024 in Operation Sindoor. “Open-source imagery has verified the loss of one Rafale EH (enhanced with advanced electronics),” it said. To be sure, India has never directly addressed queries on the loss of a Rafale during Operation Sindoor, insisting that all objectives of the operation were met.“What exactly occurred during the engagement is still uncertain. It is unclear which BVR missiles the Rafales were equipped with (the MBDA Mica or the Meteor), if Indian aircraft engaged Pakistani aircraft, and if their rules of engagement even permitted Indian aircraft to engage,” it said, offering theories on the alleged loss of an aircraft.“Reports also vary on what may have caused known Indian aircraft losses. The recovery of wreckage of a China Airborne Missile Academy PL-15E (CH-AA-12 Abaddon) suggests that this long-range missile may have contributed to the losses. The Aviation Industry Corporation of China’s official range for the PL-15E stands at 145 kilometres,” it added.IISS’s review also confirmed Indian planes conducted “strikes against nine alleged terrorist bases or camps in Azad Jammu and Kashmir, as well as in Pakistani Punjab”. It added: “Although reports vary on which aircraft and weapons India employed, India said it used MBDA SCALP-EG land-attack cruise missiles and Safran AASM Hammer 250 guided bombs launched from Dassault Rafale DH/EH aircraft (the DH is a twin-seater) to target these sites”.“In response, Pakistan (with Operation Bunyan-un-Marsoos) scrambled its combat aircraft – likely the Chengdu J-10CE Firebrand and CAC/PAC JF-17 Thunder Block III,” the review said.“But… neither country’s combat aircraft went beyond its own airspace,” it concluded. The report also observed that the Indo-Pak conflict “provided a real-world test of Chinese military technology”.After the operation, it noted, “India continued to expand its capabilities, modernise its forces and strengthen its domestic defence-industrial base… aimed at developing an integrated air-and-missile defence system by 2035, covering both strategic and civilian areas. The country adopted a new Maritime Doctrine for the first time in a decade, as well as a Joint Doctrine on Special Forces”.At the same time it commented, “India’s armed forces remain primarily oriented towards territorial disputes with Pakistan. The country also has long-standing territorial disputes with China and is pivoting towards security concerns posed by Beijing in the Indian Ocean… India continues to develop its nuclear capabilities, and in 2024 tested its Agni-V IRBM (intermediate range ballistic missile), employing MIRVs (multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles). The mainstay of India’s equipment is Soviet and Russian in origin, particularly its air capabilities – with the two countries also cooperating on missile defence through India’s purchase of the S-400 system. More recent imports have been from the US and France… The capability of India’s large conventional forces is also limited by inadequate logistics, shortages of ammunition, spare parts and specialist maintenance personnel. Modernisation projects have seen delays and cost overruns. The government’s ‘Make in India’ policy aims to strengthen the defence-industrial base, but progress is slow, with limited foreign direct investment in defence”.Defence spending in AsiaIndia’s defence outlay last year was $78.3 billion. This was the sixth highest among all nations, with Russia, Germany and the United Kingdom occupying third, fourth and fifth positions. IISS’s report estimated “upward revisions (in India’s defence budget) may be forthcoming following major clashes with Pakistan in May 2025… the government claimed that 65% of the country’s defence equipment was now produced domestically. Yet, licensed assembly and manufacturing comprised a large proportion of this percentage, especially for major defence platforms.”Commenting on Pakistan, IISS said the country “announced the establishment of an army rocket force command, followed by the first test of a new Fatah IV ground-launched cruise missile”. It further said, “in the naval domain, the country saw the launch of its second and third Chinese-designed Hangor-class (Type-039B [Yuan]) conventionally powered attack submarines, which features air-independent propulsion. The first of the eight boats ordered in 2015 – of which only the initial four are being built in China – is expected to enter service in 2026”.About Pakistan’s defence budget, it extrapolated that while a 17.8% increase in 2025 saw spending go to $10 billion, high rates of inflation in the country have had “a significant impact”, so much so, that the 2025 allocation “is actually 11% lower in real terms than in 2019”.India’s recently strained relations with Bangladesh makes it relevant to peruse what the review says about it.“The country has close defence ties with India, its longest standing defence partner,” it asserted, “but it cancelled a $21 million shipbuilding contract in May 2025”.Bangladesh’s budget allotment for 2026 was still a modest$3.25 billion. Another of India’s neighbours, Myanmar’s military expense in 2025 was an estimated $2.47 billion, defrayed almost entirely to maintain internal security and undertake counter-insurgency – given the rebellion against military rule.But as IISS’s report makes abundantly clear, China is the dragon in the Asian cosmos. The Chinese defence outlay last year was $251.29 billion, which was nearly 44% of all military spending in Asia. China’s expenditure was second only to the US’s $921 billion, and more than three times India’s, which was the second highest spender in the Asian continent. Japan with $58.9 billion and South Korea with $43.8 billion came next.China ceaselessly flexes its muscle against neighbours with whom it has territorial disagreements. In the new climate of a Trump-led US, Washington’s East Asian allies have been kept guessing about its commitment to security guarantees. Consequently, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are likely to invest more on defence to safeguard their interests. “Japan made important progress in developing a suite of stand-off missile capabilities“, the Military Balance 2026 manual elucidated.“Developments in China’s aircraft carrier capabilities starkly illustrated the country’s capability advances and growing operational reach,” the year’s round-up highlighted. It, added: “In 2025, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) underwent significant personnel changes as part of an ongoing anti-corruption purge, which has led foreign analysts to question the effect on operational readiness and China’s defence-industrial capabilities.” But a Chinese White Paper published in December 2025 reaffirmed its “no first use” policy in its use of nuclear weapons.As the IISS’s account put it, “The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is the world’s largest armed force, with an increasingly advanced equipment inventory.”  China’s military manpower is 2,035,000 ( Ground Forces 950,000, Navy 262,000, Air Force 403,000). Compared to that, India’s strength is 1,500,700 ( Army 1,248,000, Navy 84,350, Air Force 151,800).China has 275 satellites, 62 submarines, three aircraft carriers and 2,880 combat capable aircraft, as opposed to India’s 27 satellites, 19 submarines, two aircraft carriers and 636 combat capable aircraft. Obviously, such numbers are disproportionately in China’s favour. Therefore, India has to match the Chinese with quality rather than quantity, with utilisation of drones a new element in warfare.As for Pakistan, it has 660,000 men and women in its armed forces – 560,000 in its Army, 30,000 in its Navy and 70,000 in its Air Force. “Pakistan’s nuclear and conventional capabilities are focussed on the threat from India,” the report underlined.