Western disturbance, cyclonic circulation leading to active monsoon over NW India

PArts of nor'-west bharat testament persist in to see heavy rainfall till Tuesday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday. During the past 24 hours, heavy to very heavy rainfall has been recorded over parts of Punjab and Haryana, isolated places over Himachal Pradesh and Rajasthan.Heavy rainfall was also recorded at isolated places over Jammu & Kashmir, East Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Odisha, Bihar, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam.According to IMD, the monsoon trough is running near its normal position. An upper air cyclonic circulation is lying over northwest Bay of Bengal off Odisha-West Bengal coasts at lower and middle tropospheric levels tilting southwards with height.Also Read: City likely to experience good rainfall around beginning of Ganesh festival: IMDUnder its influence, a low pressure area is likely to form over the same region during the next 48 hours.An upper air cyclonic circulation is lying over south Haryana and adjoining northeast Rajasthan at lower and middle tropospheric levels and tilting southwards with height. A trough is running from the upper air cyclonic circulation over south Haryana and adjoining northeast Rajasthan to the cyclonic circulation over northwest Bay of Bengal off Odisha-West Bengal coasts at lower tropospheric levels. A western disturbance is also impacting the Western Himalayas.Under the influence of these features, isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, East Rajasthan during next seven days; Jammu and Kashmir on Monday and Tuesday; Haryana, Punjab for the next three days; Uttar Pradesh during August 29 to 31 with isolated very heavy rainfall over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, West Rajasthan on August 26; East Rajasthan on August 27 and Uttarakhand on August 29 and 30.Light, moderate rainfall is likely at many places accompanied with thunderstorm and lightning over the Western Himalayan region during next seven days and adjoining plains during next three days and scattered rainfall during subsequent four days.“There is a western disturbance that is impacting the Western Himalayan region, there is also a low pressure area and associated cyclonic circulation over southwest UP and adjoining Haryana. Another low pressure area will form over Bay of Bengal and cover parts of central India including Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand, parts of Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi. We can say that till the end of the month, the monsoon will remain active. Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh need to be cautious as the intensity of rain may be higher over these regions,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate and meteorology, Skymet Weather.There is 4% excess rainfall over the country with 17% deficiency over east and northeast India; 15% excess over NW India; 9% excess over central India and 6% excess over South Peninsular region.