West Asia Conflict: War-like conditions disrupt India’s fertiliser supply, shipping cost doubles

THe state of war in w Asia is roiling the fertiliser business concern in republic of india, with imports existence hit by an increase in shipping costs and the closure of a key route, and domestic manufacturing being crimped by shortage of gas, analysts and fertiliser industry executives said.Deals for fertiliser imports are typically finalised during December-February for the summer-sown season, but with shipping costs doubling and no vessel being able to clear the Strait of Hormuz, a globally critical chokepoint for most shipments, the situation is dire, analysts said.The domestic crop-nutrient industry is staring at another key risk — a shortage of imported gas supplies, which fire fertiliser plants. Qatar on Monday paused production of liquefied natural gas, as Iran continued to retaliate against Gulf countries following Israeli and US strikes against it. India imports around 50-60% of its natural gas.In 2024, the domestic fertiliser industry accounted for about 30.6% of India’s total natural gas consumption, making it the single largest user. India is the top importer of UAE’s LNG and the second-largest buyer of Qatari gas, according to commerce ministry data.“State-run gas companies have already started to ration gas supplies to industrial buyers from Tuesday,” a fertiliser industry executive said, requesting anonymity.The benchmark freight rate for large crude tankers on Monday rose to an all-time high of $423,736 per day, according to the London Stock Exchange Group. This has had a ripple effect on all containerised cargo. “The increases, including for shipping and insurance, has raised fertilisers import costs by nearly 25-30%,” said Supal Sharma, a director at fertiliser trading firm Epic Abundance Ltd.Shipping through the strait, wedged between Iran and Oman, has ground to a halt. As well as for global trade, the waterway is a vital passage for Indian shipments, carrying half of India’s crude oil and gas, nearly 60% of fertilisers and most other commodities.“Indian importers last month concluded imports of 1.3 million tonnes of urea for the summer season. The focus now is on how to get existing contracts delivered safely, instead of focussed on forward deliveries, for which a wait-and-watch stance is being adopted,” said Anand Tewotia, an agent of Sai Fertilisers Ltd.India is a net importer of fertilisers, buying 20-21 million tonnes annually. Imports of finished products and raw materials are sourced almost entirely from West Asian and Gulf countries as well as north African producers, such as Egypt and Morocco.India had a sufficient buffer stock of fertilisers for the winter-sown season, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman told Parliament on December 15. Urea stocks on October 31 were 6.8 million tonnes, higher than the winter demand of 5 million tonnes.Qatar, the UAE and Oman together supply nearly 76% of India’s sulphur imports, while Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Iran are the three top exporters of urea, the most used crop nutrient in India. All of them ship to the country through the Strait of Hormuz.Morocco, which supplies India with phosphates, typically uses the Seuz-Red Sea conduit, where vessel movement has become difficult due to potential attacks from Yemeni Houthis, an Iranian ally. Nearly 40% of supplies used the Suez waterway.According to DK Acharya, a consultant with the Fertiliser Association of India, fertiliser supplies from Russia are significant for India and accounted for nearly a third of total imports last year, having risen threefold in the last three years to over $1.7 billion.A prolonged conflict therefore is a big risk to prices and availability, analysts said.Global container shipping lines, such as Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM and MSC, have reversed decisions to return to the Seuz Canal-Red Sea route due to escalating risks of attacks from Houthis following the Iran conflict.The Red Sea risks imperil imports from Russia, another big supplier of phosphate-based nutrients to India, which uses the Bab el-Mandeb trans-Suez waterway to reach Indian ports.Fertiliser supplies from Russia are significant for India and accounted for nearly a third of total imports last year, having risen threefold in the last three years to over $1.7 billion, said DK Acharya, a consultant with the Fertiliser Association of India.Experts said they were unsure about any impacts on Chinese imports. China’s “expected absence” from any significant urea and phosphate exports is likely to continue until Aug 2026, an industry executive said, asking not to be named.In 2023-24, China supplied 2.3 million tonnes of India’s total DAP imports, while the country’s share in total urea imports by India of 8 million tonnes was pegged at about 2.2 million tonnes. Last year, those two categories from China fell to 0.8 million tonnes and 0.1 million tonnes respectively.