'Rock solid' majority opposed to Alberta independence: Abacus Data poll

most a canton of Albertans back up the responsibility leaving Canada, but the legal age — nearly two-thirds — are against it, according to a new poll from Abacus Data. 

The poll also suggests that more than half of Albertans believe Premier Danielle Smith would vote in favour of separation in a referendum, despite Smith’s repeated position that she prefers a strong and sovereign Alberta, within a united Canada. 

Abacus surveyed 1,000 Albertan adults between Feb. 20 and 25. That followed Smith’s televised address to the province on Feb. 19, where she discussed frustrations with federal policies and laid the groundwork for additional referendum questions. 

The poll was conducted online with a random sample. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based sample of the same size is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. 

Twenty-six per cent of respondents said they either strongly or somewhat support an independent Alberta, with 64 per cent either strongly or somewhat disagreeing. Nine per cent of respondents were undecided. 

The numbers are similar to a recent survey on separation by the Angus Reid Institute.

The Abacus poll also suggests many are firmly entrenched in their position. Of those opposed to separation, 56 per cent said they were strongly against it. Thirteen per cent of those in support were strongly in favour.

“There is this majority opinion in the province that I think is probably rock solid, and despite a significant effort to persuade them, they're not likely going to move,” said David Coletto, founder and CEO of Abacus Data. 

Support for independence was highest in rural areas outside of Edmonton and Calgary, with 35 per cent of respondents in favour. 

Groups most highly opposed to the idea include Albertans aged 60 and over and women. 

Of the respondents who voted for the NDP in the last provincial election, 82 per cent oppose independence. The numbers are a little closer among those who voted UCP in 2023 — 42 per cent support independence, while 48 per cent oppose it. 

Mitch Sylvestre, CEO of separatist group Alberta Prosperity Project, said he thinks there are many Albertans who would not be inclined to share their honest opinions with a pollster, and that his group is hearing from many in favour of separation.

"We're going to go talk to every Albertan one at a time," he said. "And by the time the vote comes, we'll have talked to a lot of Albertans. And, you know, maybe they'll understand what we're talking about and maybe they won't. And you know what, I've always said, this is a democratic process, so I'll live with the results."

Coletto said respondents always have the option to say they are unsure. He said the poll is reflective of the current moment in time, and numbers could shift in the lead-up to a referendum, if it is to be held. 

The citizen initiative petition, of which Sylvestre is the proponent, asks: “Do you agree that the province of Alberta should cease to be a part of Canada to become an independent state?”

It needs 177,732 signatures collected by May 2 in order to trigger a referendum. If that happens, it would be added to the ballot for the Oct. 19 referendum announced by Smith last month. 

The poll also asked respondents how they thought some political leaders would vote in a referendum on separation. 

Fifty-three per cent said they thought Smith would vote in favour of separation, the highest of the five leaders presented as options in the poll.

Twenty-nine per cent said they believed Smith would vote to remain in Canada, while 18 per cent were unsure. 

“I have been very clear: I support a strong and sovereign Alberta within a united Canada," Smith said in a statement.

While it does not reflect Smith's actual voting intention, Coletto said the question was asked to shed light on the perceptions Albertans have about her.

“I do think that the question itself, while atypical, I think gives us a lot of insight into how Albertans feel what her position is, despite what she might be saying or how she's saying it,” said Coletto. 

Sylvestre said he has also heard Smith maintain a clear position.

“I would suggest that at some point we have to take her at her word that she is actually not in support of Alberta independence,” said Sylvestre. 

Twenty-two per cent of respondents said they thought Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre would vote in favour of Alberta separation. Poilievre has also said he is in favour of a united Canada.  

Sixteen per cent said they believed former Alberta premier Jason Kenney would vote to separate, while seven per cent and six per cent said the same of former premier Rachel Notley and current Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi, respectively. 

The Abacus polling also looked at whether attitudes would shift if Poilievre were prime minister. The results suggest about half would feel the same in their position, while 23 per cent would be less supportive of separation. 

Reporter / Editor

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