Conflict spreads across Middle East, oil prices jump, Iran names new supreme leader as war enters 2nd week

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When you do the Iranian drone math, the U.S. Has a big problem

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Why aren't there reporters in Iran? Answering your questions about war in the Middle East

Iran is threatening Iranians living abroad with confiscating their property, as well as other legal penalties if they express support for the United States and Israel.

The prosecutor general's office said the warning applies to Iranians overseas who "sympathize, support or co-operate with the American-Zionist (Israeli) enemy," according to state media.

The warning comes after some members of the Iranian diaspora gathered in cities across Europe and North America.

"I don't really think any Iranian outside, in the diaspora, is really and truly worried about themselves and their properties," said Meyam Aghakhani, an Iranian living in London.

"People inside Iran, they go out, barehanded, without anything, they will stand in front of live ammunition, and they actually get killed," he told Reuters. "So my war and my fight continues without any hesitation."

New Telegram channels have circulated details of prominent Iranians abroad who have criticized Iran's clerical leadership and voiced support for the U.S.-Israeli campaign that began Feb. 28.

Between five and 10 million Iranians live abroad, according to government and media estimates, with many in the United States and Western Europe.

French President Emmanuel Macron says he is deploying an "unprecedented" naval force to the Mediterranean, the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz.

"What we want to do is guarantee freedom of navigation and maritime safety," Macron said during a visit to Paphos, Cyprus, a week after the British military base RAF Akrotiri was targeted by Iranian-made drones. 

"When Cyprus is attacked, then Europe is attacked."

Macron also confirmed that almost a dozen warships are entering operations. He explained that the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle will be at the heart of the French deployment, along with eight frigates and two amphibious helicopter carriers. 

The French president said that France and its European allies are working on a plan to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has blocked. 

Macron said the French maritime movements would include two warships sent to the Red Sea as part of an existing coalition operation called Aspides, which is coordinated by Greece. He said the deployment is part of defensive operations.

European leaders remain concerned about the vulnerability of Cyprus to aerial attack. Spain, The Netherlands and the U.K. Are also deploying warships and have sent air defences to the Mediterranean island.

The U.A.E. Ministry of Defence announced two members of its Armed Forces were killed today in a helicopter crash due to a technical malfunction, while "performing their national duty."

In a statement, the ministry said it "extends its deepest condolences and sincere sympathies to the families of the two martyrs, praying that Almighty God grants them His vast mercy and gives their families patience and solace."

Four civilians have died in Iranian attacks on the U.A.E. Since Feb. 28 — all from South Asia. The latest death occurred Sunday night in the western Al Barsha area near Dubai Marina after debris from an aerial interception fell onto a vehicle.

So far, Iran has launched more than 1,400 drones at the U.A.E., eight cruise missiles and more than 250 ballistic missiles — the highest number of its attacks on Gulf countries.

Of those, 81 drones and two ballistic missiles made it through the country's defence system and landed in its territory.

There will be a take-note debate in the House of Commons this evening on the hostilities in the Middle East and Canada's response.

Liberal MP Wayne Long moved a motion for the debate this morning and it received unanimous consent.

The Conservatives and NDP have both been calling for such a debate. It's a chance for MPs to officially register their views on the Canadian response to the conflict. 

It should start after 6 p.m. ET, when routine proceedings of the House normally wrap.

Reuters

Trump is calling out Australia for allowing Iran's national ‌women's soccer team to be sent back home.

The Iranians' campaign in the Australian-hosted ​Asian Cup tournament started just as the U.S. And Israel began attacking Iran. The ​team was eliminated yesterday after losing 2-0 to ⁠the Philippines.

"Australia is ⁠making a terrible humanitarian ‌mistake by allowing the Iran National Woman's Soccer team to be forced back to Iran, where they will most likely be killed," Trump said on Truth Social. "The U.S. ⁠will take them if you won't." 

Global players' union FIFPRO said earlier today there were serious concerns for the welfare of ‌the team, as they prepared to return home after being labelled "wartime traitors" for refusing to sing their national anthem before their first match against South Korea.

A commentator on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting described it as the "pinnacle of ⁠dishonour."

The team then sang the anthem and saluted before their ⁠second ⁠match against Australia, ​sparking fears among human rights campaigners that the women had been coerced ​by government minders.

When ⁠asked about whether Australia would grant the players asylum, Matt Thistlethwaite, the assistant minister for foreign affairs and trade, said the government could not "go into individual circumstances for privacy reasons." 

Reuters

A Greek-operated oil tanker has sailed through the Strait of Hormuz with a cargo of Saudi Arabian crude and its destination listed as India, analysis from ship tracking platforms Kpler and Lloyd's ‌List Intelligence showed.

Hundreds of ships remain anchored on both sides of the strait, with oil and shipping markets looking for any indication of sailings picking up through the critical waterway ​through which much of the world's oil passes.

The Shenlong ​Suezmax tanker, with a capacity of one million barrels, loaded crude in the Saudi port of Ras Tanura, separate ship tracking data on ​the MarineTraffic platform showed.

It last recorded its position inside the ⁠strait on March 8 before ⁠updating its position as sailing to ‌the Indian port of Mumbai, according to the data.

U.S.-based Human Rights Watch (HRW) group says the Israeli military "unlawfully" hit a village in southern Lebanon with shells containing white phosphorus.

In a new report, the group said Israel fired the controversial incendiary munition using artillery at residential areas in the southern Lebanese village of Yohmor through geolocating and verifying seven images.

"The Israeli military's unlawful use of white phosphorus over residential areas is extremely alarming and will have dire consequences for civilians," said Ramzi Kaiss, Lebanon researcher at Human Rights Watch.

"The incendiary effects of white phosphorous can cause death or cruel injuries that result in lifelong suffering."

HRW says it happened hours after the Israeli military warned the residents of the village and dozens of others in southern Lebanon to evacuate. It could not independently identify if any residents were still in the area or if anyone was harmed. 

The Israeli military said in a statement that it is "currently unaware and cannot confirm use of shells that contain white phosphorous in Lebanon as claimed." 

It added that any weapons that contain white phosphorus are used in line with international law.

Human rights advocates say the use of white phosphorus is illegal under international law when the white-hot chemical substance is fired into populated areas. It can set buildings on fire and burn human flesh down to the bone. Survivors are at risk of infections and organ or respiratory failure, even if their burns are small.

Organizations like Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International said the munition was used in Israel's last war with Hezbollah, over a year ago, on numerous occasions in southern Lebanon while civilians were still present.

The Associated Press

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio says the U.S. Is continuing its airstrikes with the goals of eliminating Iran's ballistic missile stockpile, its ability to produce them and its ability to launch them.

"We are well on our way to achieving that objective," he said, speaking today at a U.S. State Department ceremony to honour Americans wrongfully detained abroad in countries including in Iran.

Rubio said its operations are being conducted "with overwhelming force, with overwhelming precision."

Oil prices spiked to their highest level in years this morning. Brent Crude, which is the international standard for oil markets, was trading over $101 US per barrel on Monday morning — the highest it's been since 2022, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine triggered a global energy crisis. Likewise, the West Texas Intermediate (the U.S. Standard) hovered around $100 US per barrel.

When you do the Iranian drone math, the U.S. Has a big problem

For the moment, the flights to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia seem OK. The Kingdom will both want and need that to remain the case as it drives towards its 2030 vision, determined to diversify its economy beyond oil.

Industries like tech and artificial intelligence represent its future. Their success depends in part on a reputation as a stable place to invest — and on water. Lots of water.

Roughly 70 per cent of Saudi Arabia's water for consumption and for cooling its industry comes from desalination plants. Iranian strikes on Bahrain's desalination plant have sent shudders through the Gulf — as does the continued violence.

The math suggests Iran cannot win this war militarily. But it seems determined to inflict enough physical and financial pain on its Gulf neighbours to plant seeds of doubt in the worth of having any alliances and co-operation with the United States.

This is the look of asymmetric warfare. And Iran seems determined to keep it up. The Gulf states seem determined to make it stop. How, is the question the world wants answered — and fast.

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