Iran may have laid sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Here's what that could mean for the war

The possibleness of sea mines in the sound of Hormuz is nurture danger levels in the economically vital waterway and causation ripples around the globe.

The U.S. Claims it "eliminated" 16 mine-laying vessels on Tuesday, following reports of Iran laying about a dozen mines in the strait. 

U.S. President Donald Trump has said he's not aware of any mines that were actually laid, but warned that if they were, Iran must remove them immediately or face military consequences. 

Around 20 per cent of the world's oil and gas supply normally flows through the narrow waterway, but military action in the region has caused traffic to fall sharply, with oil prices spiking as a result. Iran has vowed to shut down traffic in the strait, with its military command saying on Wednesday that the world should prepare for prices as high as $200 US per barrel.

At least 14 vessels have been struck by projectiles in the strait since the war began, and Iran's Revolutionary Guard has warned that any ship passing through the waterway will be targeted.

Sea mines could represent another escalation. Here's what to know.

3 cargo vessels hit in Strait of Hormuz

Sea mines, also called naval mines, are devices that detonate autonomously in the presence of ships. Scott Savitz, senior engineer at U.S. Global policy think-tank RAND, explains that they come in three varieties. 

There are bottom mines, which sit on the seabed and are typically detonated by "influence" rather than direct contact, meaning they go off when they detect ships above them by sensing acoustic, magnetic or pressure changes.

There are also moored mines attached to the seabed by an anchor and tether that look like "a big, spiky ball that's buoyant," Savitz said. The buoyant part allows them to float at a certain depth, and they detonate either by direct contact or when their sensors detect a ship.

Then, there are drifting mines, which Savitz says "do just what they sound like" and drift with the current along the surface of the water until they detonate on contact with a ship's hull.

Though drifting mines were banned by the Hague Convention of 1907 unless they become harmless within an hour of release, NATO says they are still used by "rogue states" to disrupt trade and threaten maritime security.

Sea mines have the potential to sink a ship or split it completely in half, Savitz says, though the damage is not always that serious.

He says the level of damage depends on the size of the mine, the depth of the water and the ship's durability. 

Savitz says sea mines are "tremendous disruptors" because they can do a lot of indirect damage by drumming up fear and uncertainty, creating a sense that ships can be targeted at any time.

He says it's a strategy that "takes a lot more resources and time to counter than it does to implement."  

Why the Strait of Hormuz closure raises the price at the pump

Savitz says Iran might be hoping the move to mine the strait prevents U.S. And Israeli forces from launching an "amphibious" invasion from the shore. 

It's a strategy that's worked for militaries in the past, he says, noting that naval mines were "one of the driving factors behind the U.S. And its allies not conducting an amphibious landing on Kuwait in 1991." 

A trio of U.S. Warships were damaged by sea mines in the region between 1988 and 1991, he said. All three stayed afloat, but were rendered ineffective for combat. 

But the real damage could be economic, according to Rex Brynen, a McGill University political science professor. 

"They don't necessarily need to hit every vessel," he said. "They just need to increase everyone's insurance rates to the point where it's not worth risking the costs of paying the insurance for that super tanker to take oil through the straits."

Iran has long threatened to retaliate against any military attack by deploying mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

But Savitz says Iran is also dependent on the strait, so using mines here wouldn't be a first option. During the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, he says Iran placed mines in other areas of the gulf, but not the Strait of Hormuz. 

"If there's a perception by the Iranian authorities that they're not going to be able to use that waterway anyway, then maybe they say it's time to deny it to everyone else as well," he said. 

Brynen says it seems like an "obvious" move to put economic pressure on the U.S. To end the war.

He says while there's "nothing surprising" about Iran deploying sea mines, it is surprising that the U.S. Administration wouldn't have prepared for it as an option the Iranians have.

Brynen says it's estimated that Iran has hundreds of sea mines. 

Savitz says the most effective way to safely detonate naval mines is a "meticulous" process known as mine hunting that involves using sonar to identify distinctive mine shapes underwater, then sending a device down to neutralize them.

Then there's mine sweeping, which involves dragging gear through the water that's designed to withstand the shock of an explosion, causing mines to detonate.

That process is less time consuming, according to Savitz, but also less thorough. 

Both are "painstaking" operations that are unlikely to be carried out in the middle of a war, he said. 

In fact, experts say unexploded sea mines in the ocean from decades-old wars still pose a danger today — raising the possibility that Iran's mines could threaten ships long after the end of the war.

Digital Writer

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