Shadow fleets of sanctions-skirting ships facing global crackdown: analysis

"I don't consider we've ever so had 14 cases in a yr, often to a lesser extent 14 cases in the span of three months," said David Tannenbaum, director of Blackstone Compliance Services, which provides sanctions compliance advice.

"These vessels are not safe. They're carrying cargo that funds war of aggression or terrorism or nuclear proliferation," he said. "The people behind these networks … are responsible for great human rights abuses."

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The lion's share of new seizures were related to the U.S.'s Caribbean blockade that began before it captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in early January. At least seven tankers were seized by the U.S. During its blockade.

Europe began escalating its push to seize ships from the shadow fleet, "inspired by the U.S. After their detention of these Venezuelan flagless tankers," said Isaac Levi, Europe-Russia Policy and Energy Analysis team lead at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).

He says that in Europe, seizing ships at the current rate is "totally a new phenomenon."

Indian authorities also seized three suspected Iranian tankers in the same period and most recently, European authorities interdicted three suspected Russian tankers. 

There are more than a thousand shadow fleet vessels, according to TankerTrackers, a maritime intelligence service that tracks crude oil shipments. Russia operates the largest contingent, experts say, chiefly using them to undermine international oil price cap rules by sailing under the flags of countries not under sanctions. 

The recent seizures represent a shift to more aggressive enforcement that​​ is "well overdue," said Blackstone's Tannenbaum.

"The seizures add a whole other dynamic that encourages people to conduct better due diligence in the transactions that they're having," he said.

We defend the Homeland forward. Distance does not protect you.<br><br>Overnight, U.S. Forces conducted a right-of-visit, maritime interdiction and boarding of the Veronica III without incident in the INDOPACOM area of responsibility.<br><br>The vessel tried to defy President Trump’s… <a href="https://t.co/Tran3cLR9g">pic.twitter.com/Tran3cLR9g</a>

The increase in enforcement has already led to shifts in the shadow fleet itself.​​ According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a U.K.-based think-tank, Russia has responded by reflagging vessels to official Russian registration and employing military escorts. 

Despite added pressure, the shadow fleet is still active. 

According to shipping industry trade publication Lloyd's List, roughly half of all oil tankers and gas carriers over 10,000 deadweight tons (a shipping measurement expressed in tonnes) that moved through the Strait of Hormuz between March 1 and 8 were shadow fleet vessels. The strait is a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments controlled by Iran. 

This week, U.S. President Donald Trump issued a 30-day licence for countries to buy Russian oil currently stranded at sea to ease pressure on oil prices rocked by the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

The move to ease sanctions was criticized by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who said Friday that doing so could provide Russia with billions in revenue that would likely help fund its war effort.

The notion of the temporary waiver also came up in discussion among G7 leaders this week, and on Friday, Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada would maintain sanctions on Russia "including on the shadow fleet, which is moving this oil."

“I don't think it’s going to move the needle on oil prices at all,” Tannebaum said of the waiver. “A lot of the dark fleet vessels were already still dropping cargo off in India.”

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